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Old 02-27-2014, 08:30 AM   #91
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Re: The 2014 Major League Baseball Season

Quote:
Originally Posted by sbuzzz View Post
And if Longoria blows out a knee this year and never plays a single inning during that extension, how much of a discount is it?

edit: and ^^^^, what YNK said.
You can say that about any long term contract. There is always risk.

We're discussing a few points here - is giving Trout an extra 500k this year good for a) the team, even if he leaves as a free agent as soon as we can (answer is yes) and b) does it help the Angels sign him to a longer contract in the future (yes) and c) does this mean he might give the Angels a slight discount in the future (possibly)
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  • Old 02-27-2014, 08:34 AM   #92
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    Re: The 2014 Major League Baseball Season

    Another swing and miss.

    The five free agency years that the Braves bought out from Freeman are his age 27, 28, 29, 30, and 31 seasons. He signed the deal coming off of his age 23 season, a year he finished 5th in the MVP voting.

    The 6 years that the Rays bought out from Evan Longoria are his age 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, and 37 seasons. He signed coming of his age 26 season, a year he played in a total of 77 games.

    Are you still pining for more punishment?
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    Old 02-27-2014, 08:35 AM   #93
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    Re: The 2014 Major League Baseball Season

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Lee3691 View Post
    You can say that about any long term contract. There is always risk.

    We're discussing a few points here - is giving Trout an extra 500k this year good for a) the team, even if he leaves as a free agent as soon as we can (answer is yes) and b) does it help the Angels sign him to a longer contract in the future (yes) and c) does this mean he might give the Angels a slight discount in the future (possibly)
    The answer to all three of those is Hell No, Absolutely Not, and GTFO

    Edit: Respectively
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    Old 02-27-2014, 08:37 AM   #94
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    Re: The 2014 Major League Baseball Season

    I guess you only look at the previous season to determine what a player is worth. Age is definitely a factor, but that doesn't explain most of the extra money that Freeman is making being a player not as good.

    Curious - what is your opinion of the Freeman contract? You're also on record starting Trout won't be signing a contract this offseason that buys out some free agency years, correct?
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    Old 02-27-2014, 08:38 AM   #95
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    Re: The 2014 Major League Baseball Season

    ok everyone, let's forget the fucking discount, because we all know that isnt going to happen

    Trout outperformed his (and most player's) contract the last 2 years. With the understanding that no team is going to give a guy 8 yr/$160mm while he's in the >$1mm stage pre-arbitration, the Angels gave Trout a good faith raise. Collective Bargaining or not, what Lee said still applies...if this makes Trout a little happier, that's what matters.

    Now it doesnt mean he'll give them a discount, but there could be lasting effects. When they are ready to work on a long term deal, they can say they gave him a historic contract. If he's close to FA, maybe he doesn't necessarily want to look around..maybe he knows he's with a team that has a plan and takes care of their own. That's the point.


    Its not going to save the Angels any money, but it keeps Trout happy, and maybe Trout remembers it later when he can choose what team he wants to play for. That still doesn't mean he won't leave, so there's no need to reply with that.
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    Old 02-27-2014, 08:39 AM   #96
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    Re: The 2014 Major League Baseball Season

    No, I'm on record saying that he won't be signing a 5 year contract after this season.

    The Freeman signing is a B or B+ given inflation due to television rights deals--deals that weren't in place when Longoria signed his extension. Also gets credit for not tying the Braves to him throughout his decline years.
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    Old 02-27-2014, 08:40 AM   #97
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    Re: The 2014 Major League Baseball Season

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Lee3691 View Post
    I guess you only look at the previous season to determine what a player is worth. Age is definitely a factor, but that doesn't explain most of the extra money that Freeman is making being a player not as good.

    Curious - what is your opinion of the Freeman contract? You're also on record starting Trout won't be signing a contract this offseason that buys out some free agency years, correct?
    it really, really does.
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    Old 02-27-2014, 08:41 AM   #98
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    Re: The 2014 Major League Baseball Season

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by YouNeverKnow25 View Post
    No, I'm on record saying that he won't be signing a 5 year contract after this season.

    The Freeman signing is a B or B+ given inflation due to television rights deals--deals that weren't in place when Longoria signed his extension. Also gets credit for not tying the Braves to him throughout his decline years.
    So if Trout signs a contract that buys out 2-3 years of his free agency years, who benefits more in your opinion?
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    Old 02-27-2014, 08:42 AM   #99
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    Re: The 2014 Major League Baseball Season

    i think we can all agree at this point that 99% of athletes will go to the highest bidder

    if the Angels can create a happy employee though, maybe they don't get to the point where there's a bidding war, ie FA. All this does is make him happy, and not give him an added reason to actively want to leave later.
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    Old 02-27-2014, 08:43 AM   #100
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    Re: The 2014 Major League Baseball Season

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by smokew11 View Post
    ok everyone, let's forget the fucking discount, because we all know that isnt going to happen

    Trout outperformed his (and most player's) contract the last 2 years. With the understanding that no team is going to give a guy 8 yr/$160mm while he's in the >$1mm stage pre-arbitration, the Angels gave Trout a good faith raise. Collective Bargaining or not, what Lee said still applies...if this makes Trout a little happier, that's what matters.

    Now it doesnt mean he'll give them a discount, but there could be lasting effects. When they are ready to work on a long term deal, they can say they gave him a historic contract. If he's close to FA, maybe he doesn't necessarily want to look around..maybe he knows he's with a team that has a plan and takes care of their own. That's the point.


    Its not going to save the Angels any money, but it keeps Trout happy, and maybe Trout remembers it later when he can choose what team he wants to play for. That still doesn't mean he won't leave, so there's no need to reply with that.
    The problem with this line of thinking is that Trout would never allow himself to get to free agency if he didn't want to the most money he could get. That's the whole point of FA for a player like Trout--he can sign generations-setting money today, right now, if he wants to. But he wants the most money (if we are presupposing that he gets to FA). 400K in 2014 isn't going to change that in 2016.
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    Old 02-27-2014, 08:43 AM   #101
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    Re: The 2014 Major League Baseball Season

    For the record, I don't think Trout would be giving a discount to the Angels, but it has happened before.

    My point has always been its good for morale and does increase the likelihood of him resigning with the Angels.
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    Old 02-27-2014, 08:45 AM   #102
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    Re: The 2014 Major League Baseball Season

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Lee3691 View Post
    So if Trout signs a contract that buys out 2-3 years of his free agency years, who benefits more in your opinion?
    Hmm. That's a fair question--it would completely depend on the terms of the deal.
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    Old 02-27-2014, 08:46 AM   #103
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    Re: The 2014 Major League Baseball Season

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by YouNeverKnow25 View Post
    Hmm. That's a fair question--it would completely depend on the terms of the deal.
    And the terms would be fairly describes as market value (arbitration years 60 - 65 million for 3 years, free agency years 30 - 40 million per year)
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    Old 02-27-2014, 08:46 AM   #104
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    Re: The 2014 Major League Baseball Season

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Lee3691 View Post
    For the record, I don't think Trout would be giving a discount to the Angels, but it has happened before.

    My point has always been its good for morale and does increase the likelihood of him resigning with the Angels.
    But it doesn't because again, we are assuming FA, and if he gets to FA, he's going for the best offer.
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    Old 02-27-2014, 08:48 AM   #105
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    Re: The 2014 Major League Baseball Season

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Lee3691 View Post
    And the terms would be fairly describes as market value (arbitration years 60 - 65 million for 3 years, free agency years 30 - 40 million per year)
    I think the angels benefit the most in that situation because they aren't on the hook for the decline years the way they would be if they just went to arb for 3 years and then signed him to a FA deal, because he surely wouldn't sign a 2 year deal in FA.
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    Old 02-27-2014, 08:49 AM   #106
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    Re: The 2014 Major League Baseball Season

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by YouNeverKnow25 View Post
    But it doesn't because again, we are assuming FA, and if he gets to FA, he's going for the best offer.
    You don't think that he there is even a 0.0000000000069% chance that he decided to forgo free agency, and signs long term in ap lace he enjoys with people he likes working with.

    Also, what if he becomes a free agent, and is offered 10 years 375 million from the Angels, and the best offer he has to leave is 10 years 380 million. You don't think his relationships with his owner, mgmt, other players, are going to contribute to that decision?
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    Old 02-27-2014, 08:50 AM   #107
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    Re: The 2014 Major League Baseball Season

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by YouNeverKnow25 View Post
    The problem with this line of thinking is that Trout would never allow himself to get to free agency if he didn't want to the most money he could get. That's the whole point of FA for a player like Trout--he can sign generations-setting money today, right now, if he wants to. But he wants the most money (if we are presupposing that he gets to FA). 400K in 2014 isn't going to change that in 2016.



    my presumption is that the Angels want to lock him up long-term PRIOR to FA. Giving him a good estimate raise RIGHT now may lead to that. Again, it tells the player that "we're behind you, we want to work with you, we just cant give you a 5-7 yr deal right now because its never happened pre-arb"

    if Trout takes it like that, maybe they get a deal done prior to FA. maybe they don't. but by giving him this raise, the Angels can say to themselves and (more importantly) their fan base, that they did everything they could do to keep him happy, and he still left. If he leaves in FA and the fans can look back and say the team did not do what they could PRIOR to getting to that point, the team will have a real problem
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    Old 02-27-2014, 08:50 AM   #108
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    Re: The 2014 Major League Baseball Season

    I don't because there are too many people who have his ear that the extra 5 million dollars actually does mean something to.
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    Old 02-27-2014, 08:50 AM   #109
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    Re: The 2014 Major League Baseball Season

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by YouNeverKnow25 View Post
    I think the angels benefit the most in that situation because they aren't on the hook for the decline years the way they would be if they just went to arb for 3 years and then signed him to a FA deal, because he surely wouldn't sign a 2 year deal in FA.
    I agree, but I can certainly see why a player would sign that contract.
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    Old 02-27-2014, 08:52 AM   #110
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    Re: The 2014 Major League Baseball Season

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by smokew11 View Post
    my presumption is that the Angels want to lock him up long-term PRIOR to FA. Giving him a good estimate raise RIGHT now may lead to that. Again, it tells the player that "we're behind you, we want to work with you, we just cant give you a 5-7 yr deal right now because its never happened pre-arb"

    if Trout takes it like that, maybe they get a deal done prior to FA. maybe they don't. but by giving him this raise, the Angels can say to themselves and (more importantly) their fan base, that they did everything they could do to keep him happy, and he still left. If he leaves in FA and the fans can look back and say the team did not do what they could PRIOR to getting to that point, the team will have a real problem
    I think this is the only group that benefits at all (other than Trout himself, obviously).

    There are a lot of people in the world that got very confused by the reporting of that story last year. The Angels avoid that scenario by doing this. It might be worth 400K to not have to answer those questions again.
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    Old 02-27-2014, 08:52 AM   #111
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    Re: The 2014 Major League Baseball Season

    and to add to my line of thinking...if the Angels are just going to go through arbitration and then let him become a FA, then I agree with YNK- if thats the case, there's no point to giving this raise. If they think they can forgo arbitration and lock him up prior to him gaining FA status, then this is a very good move
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    Old 02-27-2014, 08:53 AM   #112
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    Re: The 2014 Major League Baseball Season

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by YouNeverKnow25 View Post
    I don't because there are too many people who have his ear that the extra 5 million dollars actually does mean something to.
    That's about an extra 1.3% annually. If you are comfortable with your position within your company, would you leave for an extra 1.3% per year?
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    Old 02-27-2014, 08:55 AM   #113
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    Re: The 2014 Major League Baseball Season

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by smokew11 View Post
    and to add to my line of thinking...if the Angels are just going to go through arbitration and then let him become a FA, then I agree with YNK- if thats the case, there's no point to giving this raise. If they think they can forgo arbitration and lock him up prior to him gaining FA status, then this is a very good move
    Yep

    And the fan base point is a good one too. Cardinal fans know that Puljos got a fair contract offer, but that he wanted every last dollar, so you don't hear them complaining about losing him (Even before we saw his diminished skills).
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    Old 02-27-2014, 08:56 AM   #114
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    Re: The 2014 Major League Baseball Season

    Just for one example, let's presume his agent gets 5% of his deal. That's a difference of 250,000 dollars. 250,000 means a lot more to a guy like his agent than it means to Trout.
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    Old 02-27-2014, 08:57 AM   #115
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    Re: The 2014 Major League Baseball Season

    So Carl Pavano retired today
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    Old 02-27-2014, 08:58 AM   #116
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    Re: The 2014 Major League Baseball Season

    at this point in their careers, Trout's agent is prob worth more than Trout is

    I don't think it makes sense to bring agents into this. If I'm his agent, I'm not using him to get some extra money now, knowing the payday that's coming.

    edit: nvm, saw the $5mm discussion. thought this was in re: to his current raise, despite none of those figures making sense
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    Old 02-27-2014, 09:01 AM   #117
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    Re: The 2014 Major League Baseball Season

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by YouNeverKnow25 View Post
    Just for one example, let's presume his agent gets 5% of his deal. That's a difference of 250,000 dollars. 250,000 means a lot more to a guy like his agent than it means to Trout.
    a smart agent knows what his client wants. certain guys are straight up $, other guys mix in their family's wants and needs. I'm sure Halladay and Lee's agents weren't thrilled, knowing that both could have gotten more $.

    At the end of the day, any commission is better than getting fired for putting yourself ahead of your client. The smart athletes know that, the dumb ones (and there are so many dumb ones) don't, and just follow their agent blindly
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    Old 02-27-2014, 09:02 AM   #118
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    Re: The 2014 Major League Baseball Season

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by YouNeverKnow25 View Post
    Just for one example, let's presume his agent gets 5% of his deal. That's a difference of 250,000 dollars. 250,000 means a lot more to a guy like his agent than it means to Trout.
    You have a pretty cynical view of agents then. I don't disagree that money is their primary factor but also their clients happiness. The 18.75 million the agent would make from this deal at 375 million wouldn't be a huge deciding factor in his advice towards his client versus the 19 million he'd made at 380 million.
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    Old 02-27-2014, 09:04 AM   #119
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    Re: The 2014 Major League Baseball Season

    The agent was just one example. I think you'd be surprised at how many players have "employees" that work off a percentage of their salary.

    Plus, it doesn't play out as "these offers are pretty similar." It plays out as "Team X values you more. They want you more, they think you are better than Team Y. Team Y just doesn't think you're as good."
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    Old 02-27-2014, 09:13 AM   #120
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    Re: The 2014 Major League Baseball Season

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by YouNeverKnow25 View Post
    The agent was just one example. I think you'd be surprised at how many players have "employees" that work off a percentage of their salary.

    Plus, it doesn't play out as "these offers are pretty similar." It plays out as "Team X values you more. They want you more, they think you are better than Team Y. Team Y just doesn't think you're as good."
    again, I think for the smarter athletes, more goes into it than "they are offering me more $, they must like me a lot more"

    $5mm over the course of 10 years isn't that much int he grand scheme of a player's career, though most wouldnt turn it down. But if you're gonna make a 10 yr committment to a team, you need to be comfortable with the team itself, but also the city, schools, players, the team's direction, etc.

    a lot of players will just go for the $, and I have no problem with that, but everyone looks at things a little differently
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