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Old 03-07-2020, 09:41 PM   #91
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Re: Coronavirus and the 2020 DMB Summer Tour

Quote:
Originally Posted by ISawTheBridge10 View Post
Yes in 2 months 96 million will be infected. And then, using a 2.5 reproduction every week, the rest of the United States will be infected only 10 days after that.
4 weeks after that, the whole world has coronavirus.
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  • Old 03-07-2020, 09:43 PM   #92
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    Re: Coronavirus and the 2020 DMB Summer Tour

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ISawTheBridge10 View Post
    Yes in 2 months 96 million will be infected. And then, using a 2.5 reproduction every week, the rest of the United States will be infected only 10 days after that.
    Actually it doesnít work like that. The more people that get infected, the more the spread slows down. If youíre coming in contact with a bunch of people who already got it, theyíre not going to be reinfected.
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    Old 03-07-2020, 09:46 PM   #93
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    Re: Coronavirus and the 2020 DMB Summer Tour

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    Originally Posted by Dannyyankou View Post
    Actually it doesnít work like that. The more people that get infected, the more the spread slows down. If youíre coming in contact with a bunch of people who already got it, theyíre not going to be reinfected.
    I was just being facetious.
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    Old 03-07-2020, 09:47 PM   #94
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    Re: Coronavirus and the 2020 DMB Summer Tour

    A pandemic, full moon and Friday the 13th this coming week, checking off a few boxes
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    Old 03-07-2020, 09:53 PM   #95
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    Re: Coronavirus and the 2020 DMB Summer Tour

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    Originally Posted by Dannyyankou View Post
    I think thatís a worst case scenario situation. Not even China has broken 100,000 yet and theyíve had it since December.
    China did the best thing and took action. Quarantined a lot of people. Its working. That won't happen on that level in the US.
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    Old 03-07-2020, 09:55 PM   #96
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    Re: Coronavirus and the 2020 DMB Summer Tour

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Dannyyankou View Post
    Actually it doesnít work like that. The more people that get infected, the more the spread slows down. If youíre coming in contact with a bunch of people who already got it, theyíre not going to be reinfected.
    There are cases of people getting reinfected.
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    Old 03-07-2020, 10:00 PM   #97
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    Re: Coronavirus and the 2020 DMB Summer Tour

    I highly doubt this thing infects 96 million Americans.
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    Old 03-07-2020, 10:18 PM   #98
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    Re: Coronavirus and the 2020 DMB Summer Tour

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    Originally Posted by dontdrink36 View Post
    I highly doubt this thing infects 96 million Americans.
    Well the CDC estimates 26 million flu cases in the US every year. The Reddit photo told me this will be 10x worse. That’s 260 million. #science

    Last edited by ISawTheBridge10; 03-07-2020 at 10:21 PM.
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    Old 03-07-2020, 10:34 PM   #99
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    Re: Coronavirus and the 2020 DMB Summer Tour

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ToySoldier#34 View Post
    A pandemic, full moon and Friday the 13th this coming week, checking off a few boxes
    Plus we might be in retrograde right now. And Daylights Savings Time.
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    Old 03-07-2020, 11:19 PM   #100
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    Re: Coronavirus and the 2020 DMB Summer Tour

    For anyone in the thread whose first instinct was to downplay the threat of this virus and compare it to the flu, please consider watching the following interview with Dr. Richard Hatchett on the UK's channel 4 news. He is very reasoned and informative.

    https://youtu.be/dcJDpV-igjs

    I have a feeling in a few months we're all going to be a lot more worried about the large scale disruptions to the economy and health of our friends, families, and communities (including this one, the DMB community) than the cancellation of a few dozen concerts.

    In my personal opinion, it's past time for Trump not only to empower and unmuzzle our public health experts, but also try to lead the whole country towards the national effort that will be required to suppress and contain this thing. I worry that his fragile ego and fear of how the crisis will harm him politically are his main concerns, not the health and safety of the public.

    Last edited by Australian Baby; 03-07-2020 at 11:19 PM. Reason: Typo
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    Old 03-07-2020, 11:31 PM   #101
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    Re: Coronavirus and the 2020 DMB Summer Tour

    Serious question, but in the event that the tour is cancelled outright, how do we go about getting refunds? And if you're a Warehouse member who has been trading or buying tickets from others, what's the protocol to deal with that?
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    Old 03-08-2020, 12:13 AM   #102
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    Re: Coronavirus and the 2020 DMB Summer Tour

    Pearl Jam tweeted today that they are excited that their tour starts in 11 days, so there's that.
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    Old 03-08-2020, 12:15 AM   #103
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    Re: Coronavirus and the 2020 DMB Summer Tour

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    Originally Posted by darkfwank View Post
    Some jackass who thinks the virus is all a hoax will buy them I'm sure =) But thank you for the advice.
    someone who doesnít think the tour will be canceled because of this = jack ass

    Ok bud. Be thankful you sold them.
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    Old 03-08-2020, 12:28 AM   #104
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    Re: Coronavirus and the 2020 DMB Summer Tour

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by TypicalBilly14 View Post
    Pearl Jam tweeted today that they are excited that their tour starts in 11 days, so there's that.
    I think if Pearl Jam tours, dmb and most music acts will still tour this spring and summer.

    You may see more cancellation of large music festivals but that because the mass of people are way larger then regular sports events and concerts.

    I mean this corona virus is going to be around forever. Are we going to just stop living our lives because of it?
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    Old 03-08-2020, 12:34 AM   #105
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    Re: Coronavirus and the 2020 DMB Summer Tour

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ToySoldier#34 View Post
    More people having it doesn't automatically increase the death rate
    Not what Iím saying. Iím saying that 17 out of 400 cases is skewed because probably way more people have had it then 400 in the US.
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    Old 03-08-2020, 12:50 AM   #106
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    Re: Coronavirus and the 2020 DMB Summer Tour

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ISawTheBridge10 View Post
    Well the CDC estimates 26 million flu cases in the US every year.
    So if we assume that COVID19 is equally as contagious as the seasonal flu (even though it appears to be more easily spread), and take into account that 26M get the flu each year despite having a vaccine which ~50% of the population gets, what does the math work out to be on that?

    Now what is the impact if A) we acknowledge that this is more easily spread than the seasonal flu and B) we still don't know if warm weather will aid the reduction of spread? I don't think a 50M+ figure is an unreasonable estimate for total infected with a couple months.

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by seanbrutus View Post
    Serious question, but in the event that the tour is cancelled outright, how do we go about getting refunds? And if you're a Warehouse member who has been trading or buying tickets from others, what's the protocol to deal with that?
    I really don't see the whole tour being cancelled outright. As far as refunds, I assume the initial buyer will receive face value refunds, which they can then pass on to those who they sold to at face value.

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by tyler3440 View Post
    Not what I’m saying. I’m saying that 17 out of 400 cases is skewed because probably way more people have had it then 400 in the US.
    We can use South Korea as a good guide: 6,593 infected // 42 dead // 0.637% death rate.

    Given that the seasonal flu usually has a death rate of 0.1% on average, it's concerning that this appears to be more than 5x as deadly as the flu.
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    You probably know more about this stuff than I do.
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    Old 03-08-2020, 07:55 AM   #107
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    Re: Coronavirus and the 2020 DMB Summer Tour

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by BTBaboon View Post
    So if we assume that COVID19 is equally as contagious as the seasonal flu (even though it appears to be more easily spread), and take into account that 26M get the flu each year despite having a vaccine which ~50% of the population gets, what does the math work out to be on that?

    Now what is the impact if A) we acknowledge that this is more easily spread than the seasonal flu and B) we still don't know if warm weather will aid the reduction of spread? I don't think a 50M+ figure is an unreasonable estimate for total infected with a couple months.

    I really don't see the whole tour being cancelled outright. As far as refunds, I assume the initial buyer will receive face value refunds, which they can then pass on to those who they sold to at face value.


    We can use South Korea as a good guide: 6,593 infected // 42 dead // 0.637% death rate.

    Given that the seasonal flu usually has a death rate of 0.1% on average, it's concerning that this appears to be more than 5x as deadly as the flu.
    Not so sure about that given the numbers... seems like a lot more people would have it if that were the case. Either that or quarantines have actually been pretty effective.
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    I'd rather be wearing an American Flag T-shirt blasting Foreigner through a boombox in Pyongyang than ever set foot in St Louis ever again.
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    Old 03-08-2020, 07:59 AM   #108
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    Re: Coronavirus and the 2020 DMB Summer Tour

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    Not so sure about that given the numbers... seems like a lot more people would have it if that were the case. Either that or quarantines have actually been pretty effective.
    Apparently the symptoms are are mild like the common cold for a lot, so a many simply donít go to the doctor. Hard to detect the true numbers.
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    Old 03-08-2020, 08:12 AM   #109
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    Re: Coronavirus and the 2020 DMB Summer Tour

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    Apparently the symptoms are are mild like the common cold for a lot, so a many simply donít go to the doctor. Hard to detect the true numbers.
    Yeah, I don't doubt there's a lot that haven't been tested/confirmed. But with the flu at about 30million this year and this virus starting in one of the most heavily populated areas during the holiday season... there would be a lot more cases if it was 'more easily spread' than the flu
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    I'd rather be wearing an American Flag T-shirt blasting Foreigner through a boombox in Pyongyang than ever set foot in St Louis ever again.
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    Old 03-08-2020, 09:10 AM   #110
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    Re: Coronavirus and the 2020 DMB Summer Tour

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    Not what Iím saying. Iím saying that 17 out of 400 cases is skewed because probably way more people have had it then 400 in the US.
    Right but you tied it to the death rate, all of the people that have it that haven't been confirmed brings the death rate down
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    Old 03-08-2020, 09:29 AM   #111
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    Re: Coronavirus and the 2020 DMB Summer Tour

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ISawTheBridge10 View Post
    Well the CDC estimates 26 million flu cases in the US every year. The Reddit photo told me this will be 10x worse. Thatís 260 million. #science
    It's not a photo that someone from Reddit made. It's a slide from a presentation that was given to hospitals.
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    Old 03-08-2020, 09:31 AM   #112
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    Re: Coronavirus and the 2020 DMB Summer Tour

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by tyler3440 View Post
    someone who doesnít think the tour will be canceled because of this = jack ass

    Ok bud. Be thankful you sold them.
    Didn't say that. I said someone who thinks the virus is a hoax will buy them and damn it was a joke. Calm down.
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    Old 03-08-2020, 09:33 AM   #113
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    Re: Coronavirus and the 2020 DMB Summer Tour

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by drop2d View Post
    Yeah, I don't doubt there's a lot that haven't been tested/confirmed. But with the flu at about 30million this year and this virus starting in one of the most heavily populated areas during the holiday season... there would be a lot more cases if it was 'more easily spread' than the flu
    It has a higher R0 then the flu. It's going to spread way easier. It's been in the US for awhile now. US has dropped the ball and their response has been horrible.
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    Old 03-08-2020, 09:39 AM   #114
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    Re: Coronavirus and the 2020 DMB Summer Tour

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    It has a higher R0 then the flu. It's going to spread way easier. It's been in the US for awhile now. US has dropped the ball and their response has been horrible.
    Again, why hasn't it? If, as you say, it's been in the US for a while now... shouldn't the numbers be at least in the 100's of thousands by now in the US (millions ww)? Flu gets to millions in no time.
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    I'd rather be wearing an American Flag T-shirt blasting Foreigner through a boombox in Pyongyang than ever set foot in St Louis ever again.
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    Old 03-08-2020, 09:48 AM   #115
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    Re: Coronavirus and the 2020 DMB Summer Tour

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    Originally Posted by drop2d View Post
    Again, why hasn't it? If, as you say, it's been in the US for a while now... shouldn't the numbers be at least in the 100's of thousands by now in the US (millions ww)? Flu gets to millions in no time.
    We're assuming reported cases are accurate.

    They are almost certainly not accurate.
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    Old 03-08-2020, 09:51 AM   #116
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    Re: Coronavirus and the 2020 DMB Summer Tour

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by drop2d View Post
    Again, why hasn't it? If, as you say, it's been in the US for a while now... shouldn't the numbers be at least in the 100's of thousands by now in the US (millions ww)? Flu gets to millions in no time.
    The US has dropped the ball on testing. It's impossible to get a test. Most people just get sent away. According to our government the tests are finally getting out there in the next few weeks but they already promised the tests and they failed. There are studies that say this is been here for a while now:

    https://www.opb.org/news/article/was...s-undiagnosed/

    It can take weeks for this virus to show in a person.
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    Old 03-08-2020, 10:01 AM   #117
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    Re: Coronavirus and the 2020 DMB Summer Tour

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by BTBaboon View Post
    We're assuming reported cases are accurate.

    They are almost certainly not accurate.
    I have no doubt they are under reported... but by 100's of thousands?

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by darkfwank View Post
    The US has dropped the ball on testing. It's impossible to get a test. Most people just get sent away. According to our government the tests are finally getting out there in the next few weeks but they already promised the tests and they failed. There are studies that say this is been here for a while now:

    https://www.opb.org/news/article/was...s-undiagnosed/

    It can take weeks for this virus to show in a person.
    We have drive thru testing in NH.
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    I'd rather be wearing an American Flag T-shirt blasting Foreigner through a boombox in Pyongyang than ever set foot in St Louis ever again.
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    Old 03-08-2020, 10:08 AM   #118
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    Re: Coronavirus and the 2020 DMB Summer Tour

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by drop2d View Post
    I have no doubt they are under reported... but by 100's of thousands?



    We have drive thru testing in NH.
    Yeah, that's a great first step but it seems you have to through a bunch of shit to get to that drive-thru. Stuff like this should have been set up awhile ago. I believe it's been done in the UK and South Korea for a bit now.
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    Old 03-08-2020, 10:28 AM   #119
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    Re: Coronavirus and the 2020 DMB Summer Tour

    The tour will go on, it starts in MAY, thatís a few months from now. Things that have been canceled are things that are supposed to happen now. If the tour is canceled we get our money back so that doesnít bother me at all. Besides if this is still going on a few months from now we have bigger problems then a concert tour. Though like anything else even though itís an issue the media wants to scare people and they always seem to do a great job at it.
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    Old 03-08-2020, 11:36 AM   #120
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    Re: Coronavirus and the 2020 DMB Summer Tour

    You have to remember that many projections you see are based on the higher end of estimates we have available. Even the R0 is just an average projection and implies there is no way to control the spread.

    So if this virus has an r0 of 4 AND a mortality rate of 2% AND lives on surfaces for 9 days AND has 14 day asymptomatic airborne shedding to everyone within 6 feet of an infected person? Yes we are looking at 100 million+ infected and 200k+ deaths.

    I just donít believe thatís the scenario.
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