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Originally Posted by twostepr41
All this is really just academic anyway. In a few weeks we'll be told that the vaccines aren't working against new variants. We'll start seeing charts and graphs tracking cases of "new variants" as they grow astronomically and we'll be slapped back to step 1 while the pharma companies make another goozillion dollars developing and distributing the new vaccines for each one as they pop up. Next concerts? Try 2025 in masks and pods.
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Eh, I think the opposite is happening. We're being told, increasingly, that he vaccines truly are rock solid. CDC guidance change yesterday is part of that - and the data is increasingly good; it not only protects against serious illness and hospitalization/death, but the 2 doses (and to a smaller extent, J&J's 1-dose) do a pretty good job at preventing asymptomatic transmission and likely asymptomatic infection.
Israel released data yesterday showing that less than 3% of those hospitalized with serious cases of COVID are people with full vaccination. That's great news.
And while the vaccines may be *less* effective against new variants, they aren't *not* effective; as long as that protein spike remains fairly consistent, I don't see near-term variants being problematic.
Finally, there is evidence to suggest seasonality, so as we enter spring with warmer temps as vaccine rollout continues to pick up steam, it's very likely that we see cases and deaths drop further (maybe to negligible amounts) from the current lower-but-plateaued level.
Your pessimism is misplaced. I don't know how the above impacts concerts - there's MANY other elements at play - so there may or may not be a DMB tour this year, but there will no doubt be large scale shows of some variety later this year; on top of sporting events (MLB has teams planning for at least 40% capacity on opening day - tens of thousands of people in stadiums).