2020-2021 Sports Wagering Thread - Page 4 - Antsmarching.org Forums - Dave Matthews Band Discussion
Old 09-15-2020, 08:33 AM   #91
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Re: 2020-2021 Sports Wagering Thread

Quote:
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pitt -6
ten -3
nfl 1-2 ytd
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  • Old 09-15-2020, 09:14 AM   #92
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    Re: 2020-2021 Sports Wagering Thread

    I don’t think I’ll be betting much for a few more weeks. Strong preseason vibes in the games I watched.
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    Old 09-15-2020, 02:22 PM   #93
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    Re: 2020-2021 Sports Wagering Thread

    Alternate Spread Parlay: Heat +4.5 / Nuggets +8.5 (+172)
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    It's not called the Great Depression because it was an awesome fucking time.
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    Old 09-15-2020, 08:42 PM   #94
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    Re: 2020-2021 Sports Wagering Thread

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by justinandimcool View Post
    upset city tomorrow so pumped

    Miami +1.5 -110
    Denver +7 -106
    Jokic leading scorer across both games +665
    should’ve taken Murray at +334 but got thirsty but still an epic night
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    Old 09-15-2020, 08:48 PM   #95
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    Re: 2020-2021 Sports Wagering Thread

    Justin, with your NBA knowledge, you should be a professional.
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    Old 09-15-2020, 08:52 PM   #96
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    Re: 2020-2021 Sports Wagering Thread

    i’ve thought about it but i have too much emotional connection to like every team...i bet okay at times but that’s a huge edge against me even if it’s like 5-7%, i go on huuuge cold streaks. my bubble ytd is....not pretty
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    Old 09-15-2020, 09:00 PM   #97
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    Re: 2020-2021 Sports Wagering Thread

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by justinandimcool View Post
    i’ve thought about it but i have too much emotional connection to like every team...i bet okay at times but that’s a huge edge against me even if it’s like 5-7%, i go on huuuge cold streaks. my bubble ytd is....not pretty
    Do you study refs or any other metrics? With your knowledge + ref info + analytics = $$$
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    Old 09-15-2020, 09:15 PM   #98
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    Re: 2020-2021 Sports Wagering Thread

    i don’t have a ton of coding knowledge to put together a model i want

    but i look into ref stuff for sure. the number one thing i look at is pace especially for o/u and prop bets so cleaningtheglass.com is good for that. but even then i haven’t been impressive at all

    as far as betting ATS i feel my emotions get in the way, definitely not close to 50% much less 55-57% success rate. hell at the bubble i’m like 44% ATS and down a bunch of units

    i need to be more disciplined for sure since i like to bet every night, maybe specialize next year and hunt for specific matchups
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    Old 09-15-2020, 09:40 PM   #99
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    Re: 2020-2021 Sports Wagering Thread

    on that note here are my set and forget it picks for the rest of the week (no NFL or NBA tomorrow bleh)

    Cincinnati +6 over Cleveland

    Boston ML over Miami -130
    Lakers -6.5 over Denver
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    Old 09-15-2020, 11:17 PM   #100
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    Re: 2020-2021 Sports Wagering Thread

    Can anyone point me to resources that teach the essentials of modeling? Not necessarily to wholesale copy a mode as that would make it useless, but to understand how to model?

    Currently listening to "The Logic of Sports Betting" by Ed Miller & Matthew Davidow and it touches on a lot of items I was unfamiliar with such as Break Even Percentage conversions, Hold Calculations, and market shopping to create synthetic zero or negative holds.

    I'd like to go deeper if anyone has any resources.
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    It's not called the Great Depression because it was an awesome fucking time.
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    Old 09-15-2020, 11:18 PM   #101
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    Re: 2020-2021 Sports Wagering Thread

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Speilmen230 View Post
    Alternate Spread Parlay: Heat +4.5 / Nuggets +8.5 (+172)
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    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Roose13 View Post
    It's not called the Great Depression because it was an awesome fucking time.
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    Old 09-17-2020, 09:25 AM   #102
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    Re: 2020-2021 Sports Wagering Thread

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Cscottrun View Post
    Prop:

    David Johnson over 2.5 receptions. Love it. Unfortunately it's -165 on my book. Still might do it.

    Edit: Took it.
    1-0

    Tonight:

    AJ Green over 4.5 receptions +110
    OBJ over 4.5 receptions -115
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    Old 09-17-2020, 09:49 AM   #103
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    Re: 2020-2021 Sports Wagering Thread

    Browns/Bengals over 43
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    Old 09-17-2020, 08:44 PM   #104
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    Re: 2020-2021 Sports Wagering Thread

    ^nice!

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by justinandimcool View Post

    Cincinnati +6 over Cleveland
    5-4-1 NFL heading into the weekend!
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    Old 09-18-2020, 06:51 AM   #105
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    Re: 2020-2021 Sports Wagering Thread

    Plus, Bengals with the sneaky cover
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    Old 09-18-2020, 07:41 AM   #106
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    Re: 2020-2021 Sports Wagering Thread

    Well, last Saturday was terrible. Can't do worse this weekend. Not possible.

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by maker75 View Post
    Today's plays:

    Char/App State over 59.5 - 1 unit
    App St over 20 1st half - 1 unit
    K State over 17.5 1st half - 1 unit
    K State -7.5 1st half - 1 unit
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    Old 09-18-2020, 07:43 AM   #107
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    Re: 2020-2021 Sports Wagering Thread

    Hit on a parlay CIN +10.5/Over 42 last night
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    Quote:
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    You hit some nerves because some people rely on logic and facts.
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    Old 09-18-2020, 08:10 AM   #108
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    Re: 2020-2021 Sports Wagering Thread

    Saturday's plays:

    Florida Atlantic/Georgia Southern over 47.5 - 7 units I think this might be over the total near half time. Neither team plays solid defense.
    Navy +6.5 - 2 units (upset alert) - Navy was embarrassed.
    Navy +210 - 2 unit

    Few more plays to follow.
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    Old 09-18-2020, 10:59 AM   #109
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    Re: 2020-2021 Sports Wagering Thread

    Additional Plays:

    Marshall +4.5 - 1 unit
    Marshall +172 - 1 unit
    LM Warhawks +5.5 - 1 unit
    LM Warhawks +180 - 1 unit

    UTEP -3.5 - 2 units (UTEP can't lose to this team, can they?)

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by maker75 View Post
    Saturday's plays:

    Florida Atlantic/Georgia Southern over 47.5 - 7 units I think this might be over the total near half time. Neither team plays solid defense.
    Navy +6.5 - 2 units (upset alert) - Navy was embarrassed.
    Navy +210 - 2 unit

    Few more plays to follow.
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    Old 09-18-2020, 11:24 AM   #110
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    Re: 2020-2021 Sports Wagering Thread

    got in on these lines before they moved

    straight:
    San Francisco -7 over Jets
    Baltimore -7 over Houston
    Kansas City -8.5 over Chargers

    teased all of that: San Francisco -1, Baltimore -1, Kansas City -2.5 (+146)
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    Old 09-18-2020, 12:24 PM   #111
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    Re: 2020-2021 Sports Wagering Thread

    I like Bmore and KC a lot this weekend. Missed that SF line but thats a nice one too.
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    Quote:
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    You hit some nerves because some people rely on logic and facts.
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    Old 09-18-2020, 03:39 PM   #112
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    Re: 2020-2021 Sports Wagering Thread

    4 team +7 point teaser:

    Carolina +16.5
    Packers +1.5
    Rams +5.5
    Vikings +10
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    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Roose13 View Post
    It's not called the Great Depression because it was an awesome fucking time.
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    Old 09-18-2020, 07:49 PM   #113
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    Re: 2020-2021 Sports Wagering Thread

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by MiniFlynny34 View Post
    Browns/Bengals over 43
    NFL: 2-5-2 (2-5-2 ATS/Totals)
    CFB: 1-3-0 (1-2-0 ATS/Totals)
    Total: 3-8-2 (3-7-2 ATS/Totals)
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    Old 09-18-2020, 07:51 PM   #114
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    Re: 2020-2021 Sports Wagering Thread

    Oklahoma State -23.5
    Duke ML
    Notre Dame -25.5
    UCF/Georgia Tech under 59.5
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    Old 09-18-2020, 10:39 PM   #115
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    Re: 2020-2021 Sports Wagering Thread

    i’m an obscene number of units down on NBA props in the bubble but it’s just too fun and i don’t like the spread tomorrow

    Dragic o4.5 assists +110
    Tatum o4.5 assists -119
    Brown o2.5 threes +100
    Theis o7.5 rebounds -107
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    Old 09-18-2020, 11:06 PM   #116
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    Re: 2020-2021 Sports Wagering Thread

    oops actually 6.5 rebounds for Theis
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    Old 09-19-2020, 01:09 PM   #117
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    Re: 2020-2021 Sports Wagering Thread

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Speilmen230 View Post
    4 team +7 point teaser:

    Carolina +16.5
    Packers +1.5
    Rams +5.5
    Vikings +10
    Went on a spree this afternoon:

    Parlay: Heat +130/Lakers -330 (+200) 1 unit

    1st Half Spread: Celtics -1.5 (-132) 2 units

    4 leg UFC parlay: Mackenzie Dern -174/Kamzat Chimeav -490/Niko Price -154/Tyron Woodley +310 (+1182) 1 unit
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    Quote:
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    It's not called the Great Depression because it was an awesome fucking time.
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    Old 09-19-2020, 04:18 PM   #118
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    Re: 2020-2021 Sports Wagering Thread

    UFC:

    Dvorak +100 vs. Espinosa
    Walker -125 vs. Spann
    Dern -167 vs. Rarkos
    Holland -275 vs. Stewart
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    Old 09-19-2020, 05:29 PM   #119
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    Re: 2020-2021 Sports Wagering Thread

    UFC Props:

    Mackenzie Dern (inside of distance) +115
    Niko Price (inside of distance) +110
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    Last edited by prdstmnky36; 09-19-2020 at 05:30 PM.
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    Old 09-19-2020, 06:22 PM   #120
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    Re: 2020-2021 Sports Wagering Thread

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by K3nTaKa0s View Post
    UFC:

    Dvorak +100 vs. Espinosa
    Walker -125 vs. Spann
    Dern -167 vs. Rarkos
    Holland -275 vs. Stewart
    Ah yeah. Now I have Chiamev inside the distance (-162).
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