Quote:
Originally Posted by Speilmen230
Justin, do your models do any player props or is it just Spreads/ML/Totals? I've got a handful of props out there tonight. Just wasn't sure if those are markets you typically track/pay attention to. I'm almost always tailing the "pros" on Action Network with their props.
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nah, player props i do for fun but not sure i could model them consistently
i’ve only really figured out a model i like for spreads and totals
though i suppose i could start tracking derivative trends— for example if Dallas/New York is modeled to go under then Hardaway or Barrett’s points must be pretty low too...but i find that derivatives like that are already priced in to a lot of prop lines so i feel like it’s a tough market to really bet with confidence. add in B2Bs and rest i simply don’t have time
one thing i’ve had success with is certain matchups. no need for a model there. for example if i know Portland plays a drop coverage (which they apparently won’t anymore under Billups), Capela is probably not going to score a ton, and Young should hit more threes, so i parlay those two together. that’s more for fun than anything i would bet consistently