Quote:
Originally Posted by kydmb99
I definitely think Democrats are ahead by a pretty good margin right now. I just wouldn't be surprised if it tightens up as we get closer to November. As long as the economy remains solid and the tax law becomes more popular (I think it will) I think Republicans can at least avoid a major wave election... although Trump's behavior will have something to do with this which is never a good thing for Republicans.
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I agree on the bold. Though, I do think it has a lower cap than popularity of past tax bills because we're more polarized than ever. Some have legitimate issues with how it is allocated and the cost vs. other options for stimulating the economy, others just won't like anything a GOP congress passed - even if it helps them.
But as far as preventing a wave outright, I'm not sure it will be able to do that. If we're talking about keeping the Senate away from even inching NEAR competitive, then sure - I don't think the Senate is in place anyways, but elections in TN and AZ will be entertaining.
But I think (and it seems GOP strategists agree right now) the House is a lost cause for the GOP. They have too many retiring reps, some really rough candidates in vulnerable seats, and an enthusiastic Dem base challenging them. Maybe the economy bolts ahead for 5% growth in Q2-Q3 and that really energizes the GOP base to get out the vote, but I'm just not sure what degree of increased economic success on top of the already generally okay performance is needed to turn out the right.
The right's biggest issue is the enthusiasm gap, and while their tax bill may trend more popular and Trump may hover around 40%, I'm not sure if it's going to be enough to inspire the base to be motivated the way the left's base is. Now that taxes are done, they don't have that as a "you need to vote for me because..." type issue. They may run on repealing ACA still, or 2nd amendment and abortion, but I just don't know if that's enough in a midterm like this.
It's all speculative, and a lot can change in the next 9 months, but if I were to put a wager on it I'd say the Dems get the House with a fairly comfortable margin.