*Prompter Thread* (NO personal attacks, NO trolling)

[dmbmuskie]

Originally Posted by TheLastStop123

my favorite muskie comment on the virus was this one:



thinking that only testing those in a high risk situations or jobs means no community spread is a top tier galaxy brain take.

You missed the point.

We can and will et better at identifying cases and using testing resources. If that isn’t reflected in the reporting, you’re not getting the whole story.

[dmbmuskie]

Originally Posted by Dannyyankou

I'd still like an answer to this. Could the death rate really be so low that the number of cases in NYC exceed their entire population?

It’s a curve. Not a flat line.

[Antiramie]

Originally Posted by Dannyyankou

I'd still like an answer to this. Could the death rate really be so low that the number of cases in NYC exceed their entire population?

I already gave you the likely answer. That a large chunk of NYC's covid deaths were from people in nursing homes, who have a higher death rate than the national average. I'm willing to bet the period between infection and death is shorter too.

Nm I get you're just putting muskie on the spot.

[Dannyyankou]

Originally Posted by dmbmuskie

It’s a curve. Not a flat line.

That other post I quoted was talking about something else, infections per day in March.
I'm focusing on the .26% death rate you posted. 22.5k people in NYC died of COVID

(1/.0026)*22,500= 8,653,846 infections. The population of NYC is 8.399 million

[Dannyyankou]

Originally Posted by Antiramie

I already gave you the likely answer. That a large chunk of NYC's covid deaths were from people in nursing homes, who have a higher death rate than the national average. I'm willing to bet the period between infection and death is shorter too.

Nm I get you're just putting muskie on the spot.

Oh I'm sure the nursing homes had a lot to do with the original spike. But the CDC death rate estimate and simple math would mean the number of cases in NYC exceeds the entire population. Which is impossible.

[diableri]

Originally Posted by dmbmuskie

You missed the point.

We can and will et better at identifying cases and using testing resources. If that isn’t reflected in the reporting, you’re not getting the whole story.

Do you think that this particular lack of a complete picture should change our reaction?

Ca just shut down a bunch of things again. Seems prudent from looking at hospitalizations alone regardless of case positivity rate (in my only partially informed opinion). Does the lack of a whole story mean to you that we should not roll back things?

I see it as acting in best faith on the incomplete picture we have. Do you disagree? Or are you of the opinion that there is a plan to subvert something less than complete data? Is it something completely different?

[Antiramie]

Originally Posted by dmbmuskie

You missed the point.

We can and will et better at identifying cases and using testing resources. If that isn’t reflected in the reporting, you’re not getting the whole story.

1. This is what scientific projections are for. They've been around since this entire thing started. Trump supporters were notorious for blasting them as "extreme" and "unfounded".

2. It's laughable that you'd blame the media for not putting a disclaimer that "things will get better" when the entire administration is doing their best to make sure that doesn't happen.

[TheLastStop123]

Originally Posted by dmbmuskie

You missed the point.

We can and will et better at identifying cases and using testing resources. If that isn’t reflected in the reporting, you’re not getting the whole story.

I don't disagree with that at all. but you still seem to think that focusing testing on high-risk jobs/situations means there's no community spread.

how do you think those cases got there in the first place?

and if you think those who test positive in those places aren't coming home and spreading it to their families and into the community, well then I have a bridge to sell you.

[BTBaboon]

I do enjoy that Mr. "Bullshit Data" threw out 500K cases per day, and then doubled down with 750K cases per day

[Dannyyankou]

Originally Posted by BTBaboon

I do enjoy that Mr. "Bullshit Data" threw out 500K cases per day, and then doubled down with 750K cases per day

It's based on the CDC's own bullshit estimates, which again, would mean NYC infections exceed their entire population

[Antiramie]

Originally Posted by BTBaboon

I do enjoy that Mr. "Bullshit Data" threw out 500K cases per day, and then doubled down with 750K cases per day

Technically, he 1.5Xed down.

BTB is officially fake news with this fake data!

[TwoStep2888]

muskie

[BTBaboon]

I posted a whole list of his denialism, and wrong takes. He said that he got "DeSantis'd" and that it was out of context. I asked what was out of context....crickets.

[Antiramie]

muskie's next estimation:

https://imgflip.com/i/46yqpk

[dmbmuskie]

Originally Posted by Dannyyankou

That other post I quoted was talking about something else, infections per day in March.
I'm focusing on the .26% death rate you posted. 22.5k people in NYC died of COVID

(1/.0026)*22,500= 8,653,846 infections. The population of NYC is 8.399 million

I come up with 8 million for the state. 5,625,000 for the city. That’s using the CDC rate.

I personally don’t think that is far fetched.

[Dannyyankou]

Originally Posted by dmbmuskie

I come up with 8 million for the state. 5,625,000 for the city. That’s using the CDC rate.

I personally don’t think that is far fetched.

Show your work

Is that using that .4% death rate? Even so, there's no way the difference is that high between the antibody study, which showed a 13.9% infection rate, and those numbers.

[dmbmuskie]

Originally Posted by TheLastStop123

I don't disagree with that at all. but you still seem to think that focusing testing on high-risk jobs/situations means there's no community spread.

how do you think those cases got there in the first place?

and if you think those who test positive in those places aren't coming home and spreading it to their families and into the community, well then I have a bridge to sell you.

I’m too lazy to go look, but a surprisingly low amount of people spread this to their family if I remember correctly.

[TheLastStop123]

Originally Posted by dmbmuskie

I’m too lazy to go look, but a surprisingly low amount of people spread this to their family if I remember correctly.

Coronavirus Spread in China Mostly Among Families, WHO Says

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...es-report-says

[Tiduwho]

I feel like muskie has gone all in on believing someone or some message, I'm just not sure where it's coming from. He seems to have bought in to someone's narrative though that he trusts, believes, and has made his own.

:thinking emoji

[kydmb99]

Fwiw just found out a friend of mine tested positive. 33 years old. No symptoms.

[drop2d]

Originally Posted by TheLastStop123

Coronavirus Spread in China Mostly Among Families, WHO Says

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...es-report-says

I mean, China though.

I believe absolutely nothing coming from China about this virus.

[mthawk07]

Originally Posted by Antiramie

muskie's next estimation:

https://imgflip.com/i/46yqpk

Knew what this was going to be before I ever clicked on it.

[TheLastStop123]

Originally Posted by drop2d

I mean, China though.

I believe absolutely nothing coming from China about this virus.

sigh

there are literally countless stories of families getting sick from all over the world. here's a story from NBC on US cases being linked to familial spread:


Family clusters: A common pattern for how the coronavirus spreads

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/healt...reads-n1150646

[Tiduwho]

There was a story on the news just a week or two ago that like 9 family members all tested positive after having a get together. Family spread seems to be VERY common. So again, I am confused by those statements.

[TheLastStop123]

Originally Posted by Tiduwho

There was a story on the news just a week or two ago that like 9 family members all tested positive after having a get together. Family spread seems to be VERY common. So again, I am confused by those statements.

I feel like I'm in banana land. do people really not read/watch the news?

[BTBaboon]

Originally Posted by TheLastStop123

I feel like I'm in banana land. do people really not read/watch the news?

No, the news is clearly all fake and bullshit and is just hyping COVID for no reason! Context matterz!

[dmbmuskie]

I saw 1 in 6 people infect a family member in their home.

No clue what to make of that.

[Antiramie]

Originally Posted by TheLastStop123

I feel like I'm in banana land. do people really not read/watch the news?

Here's a banana land story:

Local hospital nurse tests positive for COVID. Gets sent home. Instead of quarantining, goes on family roadtrip vacation and infects her husband and two kids in the process.

[drop2d]

Originally Posted by TheLastStop123

sigh

there are literally countless stories of families getting sick from all over the world. here's a story from NBC on US cases being linked to familial spread:


Family clusters: A common pattern for how the coronavirus spreads

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/healt...reads-n1150646

Sigh

I wasn’t saying it’s not happening. I was commenting on China. You want to bolster what you’re saying, maybe don’t use a China study

[TheLastStop123]

Originally Posted by drop2d

Sigh

I wasn’t saying it’s not happening. I was commenting on China. You want to bolster what you’re saying, maybe don’t use a China study

well I'm glad you feel that way

but you hand waved it away without saying anything else. so it came across as a dismissal.