*Prompter Thread* (NO personal attacks, NO trolling)

[BTBaboon]

Originally Posted by Antiramie

How do you attribute it to Yellen vs the transition announcement?

Largely because I believe the transition was already "priced in" to the market. Basically, we've seen no indication that the market has reacted to Trump's tempertantrums or had any broad belief that there was a chance he would succeed in his coup. So the GSA announcement was just the next logical step in what the market already believed would happen.

The Yellen announcement, on the other hand, wasn't really circulating in public spheres until yesterday. And, largely, the reason they like the move is her views on stimulus. She's advocating that, in a low interest rate environment, the government should be deficit spending to boost the economy out of the current downturn. That's music to the ears of the market, which desperately wants stimulus.

[BTBaboon]

To add to that, there's also the timing element. The market moved when that news leaked out. It didn't show substantial movement at the time of, say, MI certifying or the news drop of GSA's memo to Biden team.

Yellen is a brilliant macroeconomist, and her nomination and position will be one of the most important in the first year of the Biden Presidency. She's largely viewed as apolitical, which will be a great leap from Mnuchin (who, I did come around on a bit as he worked well with Pelosi to get stimulus done early in the pandemic and gave it everything he had in the second round negotiations). Mnuchin's background was hedge funds, being the CIO of Goldman Sachs (neither are to be frowned at from a qualification standpoint), but had a history of some corruption and cronyism. Meanwhile, Yellen will be the first woman to serve in the role, after being the first woman to chair the Federal Reserve, and years as a macro-policy wonk; including time spent as the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers to President Bill Clinton.

If anything, she's a tad over qualified for the job, but overqualified is what we need at this juncture - facing massive headwinds, a global stagnation following COVID, and a debate about to explode over the debt within the next few years.

The economist in me is gushing (as you have all very kindly noted) over the pick. It's the exact thing you'd want to see if you voted for Biden, hoping he'd be a boring/sane/listens-to-the-experts president.

[BTBaboon]

Some good reads on the Yellen pick and why the position of Treasury Secretary is going to be crucial in the coming months/year:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/treas...151347795.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/23/mark...-politics.html

[BTBaboon]

Since I have the floor, let's discuss some of the economic viewpoints held by Yellen that are in contrast to some of her contemporaries and those who have recently held the job. Yellen is largely seen as a "dove" (mainly by Wall St and the banking sector), meaning that she has a far larger concern on employment - being a labor economist and all - than inflation. Therefore, it's very unlikely that she would advocate for an increase in interest rates - which have an implied inverse relation with inflation - during her time; unless significant economic conditions dictate a move towards more normal policy from the Fed. Indeed, during her last few years as Fed Chairwoman, she did move to restore rates after long-run growth had been cemented. This move was unwound by Powell, the current Fed Chairman, after some pressure by the President. The move to lower interest rates during the expansionary period in 2019 was widely seen as political - a move to help the economy in the lead to the President's re-election. Some worried this would cause an "overheating" of the US economy; though COVID19 saw to it that we would not find out the answer. All of this is a long way to say that with interest rates near zero, and Yellen coming into the Treasury, it is unlikely we see aggressive rate policy pushed by the Biden administration onto the Fed. That's welcomed news for financial markets, which thrive in low rate environments.

Yellen is a Keynesian economist - named for the economist John Maynard Keynes - meaning she believes economic production is largely derived from aggregate demand (rather than the supply-side models preferred by Classical Economics). Therefore, she believes in leveraging policy (mainly monetary) to influence outcomes rather than taking a reactive approach and moving only after the business cycle deemed a move necessary. She also holds the Phillips Curve as a matter of truth - something that cannot be said for some of her Fed predecessors and possibly her Treasury predecessor. The Phillips Curve identifies an inverse relationship between employment and inflation - and this is partially what propels her views on interest rate policy as well - believing that in the short run a reduction in interest rates does not necessarily force inflation higher, because if employment levels are insufficient (below Full Employment) the macroeconomic laws established in the Phillips Curve would naturally put an upper bound on inflation.

She has a tall task ahead of her (somewhat ironic, because the decision to replace her rather than give her another term as Chairwoman was reportedly due in-part to Trump's dislike of her height). She is polish-American and has Jewish heritage. She attended Yale for her PhD in Economics, where she wrote "Employment, Output and Capital Accumulation in an Open Economy: A Disequilibrium Approach" as her dissertation; under the guidance of a few notable economists (Stiglitz is the big name). Sadly for my crush on her, she is married to a Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences laureate. I don't think I stand a chance.

[MDPrompter]

Love love love the Yellen choice.

[Beefsteak1138]

Probably already posted, but whatevs.

https://6abc.com/election-results-do...vania/8210226/

At least the Trump "legal" team can say they are consistent.

[BTBaboon]

Despite her "dove" stances, and the view of banks that she is preferable to someone like, say, Elizabeth Warren; Yellen is certainly no great friend of risky banking practices. She conducted bank stress tests while on the Fed and took enforcement action against many (most notably Wells Fargo). As Treasury Secretary, her role will expand beyond the monetary-focus of her time as Fed Chair. She will have to oversee - most crucially - the passage and allocation/distribution of pandemic relief funds. She will oversee financial stability policies. She will also have leverage to increase tax enforcement by working to staff the IRS - something that could address the nearly $100B/year tax-gap. Her role will also extend beyond the US borders; she will oversee trade policy and even has a hand in working with allies on financing the efforts against terrorism around the world (I think this is an area Pete could be helpful in joining, as he had experience in this specific field during his time in service).

[BTBaboon]

Revisiting some of her testimony to the Senate Banking Committee in 2013 as her nomination to be the first Federal Reserve Chairwoman moved forward, there's some pretty good and solid defenses of her policy views (which were, at the time, considered a bit controversial, but in hindsight have looked remarkably smart). In her defense of easy-monetary policy, which former Republican Senator Bob Corker (TN) had called "elitist", she replied by noting that the low rate policy adopted by Bernanke in the wake of the 2008 crisis had also had the effect of stabilizing the recovery in the US housing market, and calling it "broadly beneficial" to all those who own homes. Indeed, even throughout the deep recession caused by the enduring Coronavirus Pandemic, the housing market has remained incredibly strong (and perhaps stronger than it was pre-pandemic, against conventional wisdom during downturns).

In that same committee meeting, she faced some actual grilling from Liz Warren, who argued that the Fed should have had foresight - saying the lack of lack of attention to regulatory and supervisory responsibilities lead to the financial meltdown in '07/'08. Yellen's response acknowledged the shortcomings of the past, and pushed her vision for tighter and more strict enforcement. She viewed goals such as reducing systemic risk in markets to be a top priority of a Fed under her supervision. She won over a skeptical Warren who concluded by saying that she hoped "very much" that Yellen would be confirmed, and that she would keep our markets & financial systems safe.


Her opening statement is worth a read, too, because it remains pretty damn relevant even 6 years later: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newse...n20131114a.htm


The confirmation battle wasn't necessarily a hard-fought one nor a slam dunk, but ultimately Yellen's appointment received 56 yays to 26 nays. It was the narrowest confirmation for a Fed Chairperson. By contrast, Jerome Powell's confirmation passed by a vote of 84-13. Pretty indicative of the two party system where each party plays by a different set of rules and each party is graded on separate curves of "reasonability". I do anticipate that Yellen's appointment may have some frictions getting passed. I really don't know how hard of a line McConnell plans to take on Biden appointments, and whether he'll try to hold the cabinet hostage or not. It's a scary proposition.

[barefoot]

Yellen is a smart move, she's more of a centrist which is what is needed right now. She's smart, knows the landscape and already has relationships in the Govt. I've always thought this is the most important appointment by a POTUS.

[BTBaboon]

Originally Posted by barefoot

Yellen is a smart move, she's more of a centrist which is what is needed right now. She's smart, knows the landscape and already has relationships in the Govt. I've always thought this is the most important appointment by a POTUS.

It's certainly up there most of the time, but for an incoming administration during a downturn of this magnitude with the problems in the labor market being what they are - bringing on a distinguished labor economist with vast experience, qualifications, and sound policy views is 100% the right course.

It's really refreshing to see the picks announced so far. No oil tycoons running the State Department. No crony/corrupt hedge fund managers running the Treasury. It's just nice to see a President-elect favoring qualifications and experience over political expediency and unwavering loyalty to a cult of personality.

Yellen and Blinken are both great picks for their respective positions, and I like Klain as his chief of staff. It also appears that the cabinet will be very diverse and look more like America than ever before, and that's a good thing too - a representative sample with huge experience and qualifications is an excellent start to a Presidency. Especially one that we all hope will be boring, and not the WWE nightly cage match on Twitter that we've come to expect over the past 4 years - how exhausting that has been and how refreshingly normal and sane this will feel in contrast.

[NextMovement41]

Buttigeg fanboys are distraught that he hasn't gotten a nod yet lol. Who could have seen this coming?

[barefoot]

I would say their average life expectancy will be longer than Trump's picks as well

[BTBaboon]

Originally Posted by NextMovement41

Buttigeg fanboys are distraught that he hasn't gotten a nod yet lol. Who could have seen this coming?

I am a Pete stan, and I have no reason to be distraught, nor have I really seen anyone tok distraught. What position that's been announced by Biden so far did they think Pete was in contention for?

Originally Posted by barefoot

I would say their average life expectancy will be longer than Trump's picks as well

Let's hope. There's real damage to a rotating set of inner-circle members. Playing musical chairs with a cabinet is a recipe for a 2020-style disaster.

I'd also point out that most of Biden's picks so far that will need Senate confirmation have already been through previous confirmation hearings and were all confirmed. I think he's looking for a no-nonsense team with experience and that will give Americans confidence that the adults are finally in the room.

[coldengrey12]

Originally Posted by OK_Ant

The "left" has gone to the right, and the "right" has gone right off the rails. Both parties desperately need truly progressive change. Or maybe the sensible ones from each need to form a third party?

One thing I'm trying to keep in mind is this YouTuber I watch (always where you wanna get your wisdom ) pointed out that societal change doesn't really come from government. It comes from the people. Reform comes from government.

So, basically, his point was that if you can change the culture, you can pressure the government into reforming the existing system.

I think that's the space where people who want progressive policies and progressive change — which is the majority of Americans on a slate of issues — need to start working.

[NextMovement41]

Originally Posted by BTBaboon

I am a Pete stan, and I have no reason to be distraught, nor have I really seen anyone tok distraught. What position that's been announced by Biden so far did they think Pete was in contention for?

https://twitter.com/KnowN0thing1/sta...89172463710210

Anecdotal, but I seem to remember Treasury and State being discussed. Warren was always a pipe dream for Treasury because of her senate seat and the republican governor of Mass, so I think people saw that as a leg up maybe.

[TheLastPig]

what a post


https://twitter.com/marcorubio/statu...509045761?s=20

Biden’s cabinet picks went to Ivy League schools,have strong resumes,attend all the right conferences & will be polite & orderly caretakers of America’s decline

I support American greatness

And I have no interest in returning to the “normal” that left us dependent on China

[BTBaboon]

Originally Posted by NextMovement41

https://twitter.com/KnowN0thing1/sta...89172463710210

Anecdotal, but I seem to remember Treasury and State being discussed. Warren was always a pipe dream for Treasury because of her senate seat and the republican governor of Mass, so I think people saw that as a leg up maybe.

Pete has no qualifications that would put him anywhere near contention for Treasury. State, likewise, is not a position you want any "learning on the job" (ahem, Rex Tillerson).

Warren still has an outside shot for a Cabinet position, but it's likely she remains in the Senate (where she needs to be more influential on committees).

But that Pete sub has a ton of bots, a ton of weird people, and those "melting" may not be actually melting but just sowing discord. Pointing to Yellen's age is as weird as Trump ditching her over her height, IMO. She's shown no mental decline whatsoever and is probably the most experience, qualified, and intelligent person on macroeconomics that isn't already on the Fed or it's board of governors.

I still like Pete for VA. But even if he doesn't get an appointment, I imagine he will be retained as a close advisor.

[DMBstandUP1984]

I love Pete but I assume Biden-Harris know what they are doing

[DMBstandUP1984]

Originally Posted by BTBaboon

Pete has no qualifications that would put him anywhere near contention for Treasury. State, likewise, is not a position you want any "learning on the job" (ahem, Rex Tillerson).



Warren still has an outside shot for a Cabinet position, but it's likely she remains in the Senate (where she needs to be more influential on committees).



But that Pete sub has a ton of bots, a ton of weird people, and those "melting" may not be actually melting but just sowing discord.



I still like Pete for VA. But even if he doesn't get an appointment, I imagine he will be retained as a close advisor.

Pete for VA! Now you’re singing my tune baby

[NextMovement41]

Pete for VA makes more sense, I guess.

[mthawk07]

I think Pete was a popular prediction for UN Ambassador, but he didn’t get that, either. I would think VA is his last, best option.

[BTBaboon]

Originally Posted by mthawk07

I think Pete was a popular prediction for UN Ambassador, but he didn’t get that, either. I would think VA is his last, best option.

I think that that's not high-profile enough for him if he wants to propel his career farther, faster.


VA is a good fit for him, though A) there are TONS of qualified people for that role and B) he may have other interests he wants to pursue (US House Rep, for instance).

[BTBaboon]

In non-cabinet news, I've seen some rumblings of Jamie Harrison for DNC Chair.

If Stacy Abrams wasn't almost definitely running for Governor again, she'd be a perfect fit.

[TheLastStop123]

Originally Posted by TheLastPig

what a post


https://twitter.com/marcorubio/statu...509045761?s=20

Biden’s cabinet picks went to Ivy League schools,have strong resumes,attend all the right conferences & will be polite & orderly caretakers of America’s decline

I support American greatness

And I have no interest in returning to the “normal” that left us dependent on China

how is it that all these prominent republicans are such fucking dimwits? Rubio, Cruz, Gaetz, Jordan, Nunes etc it's just embarrassing

[TheLastPig]

https://www.indiewire.com/2020/11/mo...01-1234600389/


The aliens toying with us

[cazzie34]

Originally Posted by BTBaboon

I think that that's not high-profile enough for him if he wants to propel his career farther, faster.


VA is a good fit for him, though A) there are TONS of qualified people for that role and B) he may have other interests he wants to pursue (US House Rep, for instance).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian...ct?wprov=sfla1

Indiana's second district is almost an impossible get. Politics in indiana is basically impossible for him. He needs to get in this administration somehow someway.

[bradshaw06]

Biden passed 80 million votes

[BTBaboon]

Originally Posted by cazzie34

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian...ct?wprov=sfla1

Indiana's second district is almost an impossible get. Politics in indiana is basically impossible for him. He needs to get in this administration somehow someway.

It's Donnelly's old seat, right?

I think I agree that he should have an administration role, but I also am not sure we could definitely say the House is out of the question (if he has interest, which I've seen no indication he does, just speculating on hypotheticals where he doesn't have an administration role).

[coldengrey12]

Trump in 2024 trending on Twitter

The cope is strong

[BTBaboon]

Originally Posted by coldengrey12

Trump in 2024 trending on Twitter

The cope is strong

The reboot is never as good as the original. Trump 2024 would get landsided.