*Prompter Thread* (NO personal attacks, NO trolling)

[drakan]

Originally Posted by mthawk07

I live in an HOA neighborhood where political signs aren't allowed, so I couldn't tell you who supports whom around here. Kinda nice if you ask me, probably one of the few things HOA's get right.

Just put a big pair of aviators on your lawn.

[ExistenceNow]

The only signs I destroy are the "I buy houses for cash" signs that some dude puts on the utility pole in front of my house. I tear them down the second I see them.

[BTBaboon]

Originally Posted by mthawk07

I live in an HOA neighborhood where political signs aren't allowed, so I couldn't tell you who supports whom around here. Kinda nice if you ask me, probably one of the few things HOA's get right.

I have a feeling this is going to be the last year it's allowed by our HOA. They may ask for signs to be removed at the next meeting.

[mthawk07]

Originally Posted by drakan

Just put a big pair of aviators on your lawn.

Hell yeah, this is the type of out of the box thinking I need right now.

[BTBaboon]

I'd be cool with our HOA banning all political signs, since I really don't care to out one out ourselves.

I would LOVE for them to ban all the ugly orange UT flags, though. Vols haven't been good in 2 decades, everyone here needs a reality check.

I may actually join the HOA board at some point.

[Arby]

Originally Posted by ExistenceNow

The only signs I destroy are the "I buy houses for cash" signs that some dude puts on the utility pole in front of my house. I tear them down the second I see them.

i have no qualms with that haha

[kydmb99]

Every 6 years the opponent for McConnell has a 10 to 1 advantage in yard signs and every 6 years McConnell is re-elected

[BTBaboon]

Originally Posted by kydmb99

Every 6 years the opponent for McConnell has a 10 to 1 advantage in yard signs and every 6 years McConnell is re-elected

What I find so interesting is that he never faces a real strong primary contest. From what I gather, he isn't liked at all in the state, but wins endlessly.

[YouNeverKnow25]

HOA bans all signs but that hasn't stopped anyone from putting them out. can't complain too much because I had an invisible fence sign up while my dog was training.

[kydmb99]

Originally Posted by BTBaboon

What I find so interesting is that he never faces a real strong primary contest. From what I gather, he isn't liked at all in the state, but wins endlessly.

For a state that is ridiculed relentlessly I think having the most powerful member of the United States senate is very powerful psychologically

[mthawk07]

Originally Posted by BTBaboon

I'd be cool with our HOA banning all political signs, since I really don't care to out one out ourselves.

I would LOVE for them to ban all the ugly orange UT flags, though. Vols haven't been good in 2 decades, everyone here needs a reality check.

I may actually join the HOA board at some point.

Most sports fans are delusional to a certain degree, but Tennessee football fans are the champions of the universe. They've lost 13 straight to Bama, 9 of the last 12 to Georgia, 14 of the last 15 to Florida, and 5 of the last 8 to VANDERBILT. And yet every year they think is the year they'll be "back."

[kydmb99]

I hate UT far more than anyone else in the SEC. Utterly delusional.

[Lee3691]

I don't think HOAs are allowed to ban political signs. My neighborhood is most likely overwhelming conservative, but no signs either way for the Presidential candidates. There are some school board signs, which I thank them for, so I know who to vote against.

[monkeyman420]

Originally Posted by BTBaboon

Which in particular? The ones for your state, or for suburban/urban/rural splits?

Observation and discussions within one's own social circle or locality isn't going to be very useful in analyzing broader trends and preferences. Just not a good sample size, unfortunately.

Skeptical of the lead Biden has in swing states like WI, FL, PA. I'm in IL so no worries here in my state, and locally my county runs red so I know what to expect in those type of races. And conversations are more with the Poker Club I belong to that plays every week than my own social circle. But overall, while I know polling is different now than it was 4 years ago I worry about pollsters not polling rural districts, or polling the areas where Trump won by only a small margin where previously it would have historically gone democrat or at least leaned democrat.

My skepticism is more rooted in feelings than facts, and I have no issue acknowledging that. I really really hope the outcome matches the polling.

Originally Posted by Route_2

Yeah, this. Was more directed at Muskie. We cool Monkeyman.

[BTBaboon]

Originally Posted by kydmb99

I hate UT far more than anyone else in the SEC. Utterly delusional.

It's crazy. When I lived in Michigan, I saw the Spartan/UofM silliness where they each thought they were better than each other or Ohio State.

Nothing compares to the delusion of UT

[drakan]

Originally Posted by BTBaboon

It's crazy. When I lived in Michigan, I saw the Spartan/UofM silliness where they each thought they were better than each other or Ohio State.

Nothing compares to the delusion of UT

College football fans are a special kind of delusional.

[jcc522]

Sign less. Vote more.

[M. Steng]

Here's my anti-Trump sign. Gotten tons of compliments from people in my 'hood. The guy with a Harley up the street seems to be more obnoxiously loud as he drives by lately, I have to wonder if it's a result of the sign . Oh well. Zero fucks given.

And yes that patch of grass is horrendous but it didn't rain for like 3 weeks here and my sprinkler doesn't reach over there near the mailbox

[BTBaboon]

Originally Posted by monkeyman420

I worry about pollsters not polling rural districts, or polling the areas where Trump won by only a small margin where previously it would have historically gone democrat or at least leaned democrat.

As an FYI, most pollsters make available their demographic and crosstab info available. We can see racial, educational, gender, etc splits. I don't think they're avoiding rural areas, based on that info that is available.

I'd also ask the follow up: why would they ignore rural areas or focus on areas where Trump won by a small margin that historically went Dem? Understanding that their goal is to get the right result, rather than some odd goal of distorting results and being wrong, why would they do something they know full well would cause sample bias and put them in position to get it wrong? Remember, this is a business.

Originally Posted by monkeyman420

My skepticism is more rooted in feelings than facts, and I have no issue acknowledging that. I really really hope the outcome matches the polling.

That okay, too. A lot of us have fears of another Trump term. There's some PTSD from folks who mistakenly understood 2016 polls to indicate a done deal for HRC. So I get it. And I think some skepticism is healthy, and we should all vote no matter what. Vote like we're down 6 in the 4th quarter.

What can ease that skepticism is A) understand polling and what it tells us, but more importantly what it doesn't - polls on September aren't predictive, they're snapshots; B) compare polling in this race to that of the recent elections - Presidential and midterm - and see if the gap and support levels are different; and C) watch how polling moves over time - is the race stable, are news events causing shifts in voter preference, are there an increasing or decreasing volume of undecided or 3P voters.

And, as always, look at aggregates. This will help account for single-firm polling errors. A bonus is if they rate pollsters, like 538 does, and detail which direction a certain pollster has historically had a rate of bias towards so that you can revert to the mean.

[BTBaboon]

Originally Posted by M. Steng

And yes that patch of grass is horrendous but it didn't rain for like 3 weeks here and my sprinkler doesn't reach over there near the mailbox

Bruh...yikes! And that flower looks sad too

[kydmb99]

Democrats can’t take hispanics for granted. It’s really not that hard to envision them becoming more Republican.

https://twitter.com/forecasterenten/...269986817?s=21

[daveshookme]

SUNY Oswego Men's Hockey > SUNY Plattsburgh Men's Hockey and if you say otherwise you're fucking stupid and probably watch incest porn.

That's the only college sports I care about in the slightest. I have one flame that burns white hot.

[daveshookme]

Originally Posted by M. Steng

Here's my anti-Trump sign. Gotten tons of compliments from people in my 'hood. The guy with a Harley up the street seems to be more obnoxiously loud as he drives by lately, I have to wonder if it's a result of the sign . Oh well. Zero fucks given.

And yes that patch of grass is horrendous but it didn't rain for like 3 weeks here and my sprinkler doesn't reach over there near the mailbox

Is your mailman's name Don?

[daveshookme]

Also pronounced Geneseo Gen-Easy-Oh.

Fuck those assholes. Gotta put 'em in their place, buncha try-hards.

[vkratliff]

Originally Posted by M. Steng

Here's my anti-Trump sign. Gotten tons of compliments from people in my 'hood. The guy with a Harley up the street seems to be more obnoxiously loud as he drives by lately, I have to wonder if it's a result of the sign . Oh well. Zero fucks given.

And yes that patch of grass is horrendous but it didn't rain for like 3 weeks here and my sprinkler doesn't reach over there near the mailbox

This is great! I also love that you're trying to explain away a dry spot in your lawn. We just mow every week and let what happens happen. If it doesn't rain, we have a brown lawn. So it goes!

[BTBaboon]

Originally Posted by kydmb99

Democrats can’t take hispanics for granted. It’s really not that hard to envision them becoming more Republican.

https://twitter.com/forecasterenten/...269986817?s=21

They absolutely lean towards conservative social views.

In Florida, specifically the Cuban population, the latinx vote is ripe to be targeted on socialism fears and "deep state" conspiracy. There's been huge disinformation campaigns that appear to have been very successful to date: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...rmation-413923

It isn't as if Biden isn't making an attempt, thougg. He is targeting latino voters in Florida in a current push in the battleground: https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-a...ng-11600171592

What will be interesting to see is A) is this impact limited to Florida, or is it across all latino demos (which is why I think NV may be ripe for Trump's taking) and B) can it be offset with an influx of 65+ voters that have drastically shifted in the wake of COVID.

[BTBaboon]

Originally Posted by daveshookme

SUNY Oswego Men's Hockey > SUNY Plattsburgh Men's Hockey and if you say otherwise you're fucking stupid and probably watch incest porn.

That's the only college sports I care about in the slightest. I have one flame that burns white hot.

UA baby! Going to make the NCAA tourney and lose to Duke again in the coming years!!

[Route_2]

Trying to get caught up on this Mid-East summit at the WH today.

Was there some sort of ongoing conflict between Israel and Bahrain/UAE that Trump solved for that I haven't heard about?

Seems like a giant campaign stunt so Trump can claim he brought about 'peace' in the ME, but maybe I'm missing something.

[TwoStep2888]

Originally Posted by kydmb99

Democrats can’t take hispanics for granted. It’s really not that hard to envision them becoming more Republican.

https://twitter.com/forecasterenten/...269986817?s=21

I'll be interested to see where the Hispanic vote goes this year, they were big for Bernie in the primaries (that's why Bernie won NV so strongly) and as BTB said certain Hispanic demos like Cubans in FL do lean social conservative

[Rodey]

Originally Posted by M. Steng

Here's my anti-Trump sign. Gotten tons of compliments from people in my 'hood. The guy with a Harley up the street seems to be more obnoxiously loud as he drives by lately, I have to wonder if it's a result of the sign . Oh well. Zero fucks given.

And yes that patch of grass is horrendous but it didn't rain for like 3 weeks here and my sprinkler doesn't reach over there near the mailbox

I've seen that one around here. I love it.