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Old 07-27-2020, 06:34 PM   #264121
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Re: *Prompter Thread* (NO Personal Attacks, Trolling, breaking 52 USC 30121 OR 2 USC

M4A is too risky an issue to push when you have a substantial lead in a must-win election.

And it’s obvious which side of the argument has their panties in a bunch.
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  • Old 07-27-2020, 06:39 PM   #264122
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    Re: *Prompter Thread* (NO Personal Attacks, Trolling, breaking 52 USC 30121 OR 2 USC

    Back to more pressing issues at the moment- we’re almost back to 1k daily deaths on the 7 day average

    https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...8c087feafc.jpg
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    Old 07-27-2020, 06:40 PM   #264123
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    Re: *Prompter Thread* (NO Personal Attacks, Trolling, breaking 52 USC 30121 OR 2 USC

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by drakan View Post
    I could give 2 fucks about the platform of the DNC. I care more what Joe wants. I don't have any fucks to give about a DNC platform. Never have. I've never talked about the RNC platform except that it was changed in 2016 to benefit Russia. Even then one of the reasons I care is that it was such a stupid move to spend so much time getting a pro-russia view into a platform that nobody cares about. It's something that only Putin would really care about.
    Except the DNC and Biden agreed to a joint fundraising campaign 6 days ago, among other allegiances. So how can you say you only care what Joe wants and ignore the DNC when they're clearly in this together?
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    Old 07-27-2020, 06:41 PM   #264124
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    Re: *Prompter Thread* (NO Personal Attacks, Trolling, breaking 52 USC 30121 OR 2 USC

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by BTBaboon View Post
    New Trafalgar poll (C- pollster with an R +0.9 lean) out of Minnesota shows Biden +5, 49%-44% over Trump

    Trafalgar has been releasing some very favorable-to-Trump polls out of the Midwest that appear as outliers against other state polling, and this would be a fair improvement over the 2016 actual results, so I'd say with this that MN will not be in play.

    Trump's upside ceiling now at 316. More polling needed in NH and NV to see if we can rule those out. The President's ceiling is extremely low and highlights how narrowly he'll need to navigate to eek this out.
    Trafalgar is fucked up but to your last point re polling i'll say two things:

    1. Trump's ceiling has always been low.
    2. Trump needs a serious event to happen (or find more voters somewhere lol) for Biden to dip back below 50%. That can happen I think, but some of that narrow navigation is going to require luck + a serious polling error similar to 2016, which I think a lot of forecast models are baking into their prediction and why they've got Biden at 80-90% instead of 95>.
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    Old 07-27-2020, 06:43 PM   #264125
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    Re: *Prompter Thread* (NO Personal Attacks, Trolling, breaking 52 USC 30121 OR 2 USC

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by BTBaboon View Post
    New Trafalgar poll (C- pollster with an R +0.9 lean) out of Minnesota shows Biden +5, 49%-44% over Trump

    Trafalgar has been releasing some very favorable-to-Trump polls out of the Midwest that appear as outliers against other state polling, and this would be a fair improvement over the 2016 actual results, so I'd say with this that MN will not be in play.

    Trump's upside ceiling now at 316. More polling needed in NH and NV to see if we can rule those out. The President's ceiling is extremely low and highlights how narrowly he'll need to navigate to eek this out.
    Realistically, I should take MI out of his upside. I know he won it in 2016 and there's still a lot of race to go...but I don't see it for him this cycle.

    That would put his upside at 300 EVs
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    Old 07-27-2020, 06:44 PM   #264126
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    Re: *Prompter Thread* (NO Personal Attacks, Trolling, breaking 52 USC 30121 OR 2 USC

    Trafalgar Nailed South Carolina last year.

    I mean in 2016. I’m tired lol

    Last edited by Dannyyankou; 07-27-2020 at 06:45 PM.
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    Old 07-27-2020, 06:45 PM   #264127
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    Re: *Prompter Thread* (NO Personal Attacks, Trolling, breaking 52 USC 30121 OR 2 USC

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Dannyyankou View Post
    Back to more pressing issues at the moment- we’re almost back to 1k daily deaths on the 7 day average

    https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...8c087feafc.jpg
    It's awful. We completely fucked up.

    We, as a nation, chose going to get drunk at bars over the health and life of our neighbors. We chose bars over schools. We fucked up badly
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    Old 07-27-2020, 06:47 PM   #264128
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    Re: *Prompter Thread* (NO Personal Attacks, Trolling, breaking 52 USC 30121 OR 2 USC

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Dannyyankou View Post
    Trafalgar Nailed South Carolina last year.

    I mean in 2016. I’m tired lol
    One time I nailed a bulls eye on dart night with my weak hand.

    Stole this metaphor from another poster, but this is a great metaphor.
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    Old 07-27-2020, 06:48 PM   #264129
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    Re: *Prompter Thread* (NO Personal Attacks, Trolling, breaking 52 USC 30121 OR 2 USC

    I honestly don;t know Trump's path to victory at this point, barring a big change in the national news, I can't see him gaining voters from his 2016 win with how bad this year has gone

    edit: I could see WI staying red this cycle, but I think other states will go blue to make up for it
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    Old 07-27-2020, 06:49 PM   #264130
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    Re: *Prompter Thread* (NO Personal Attacks, Trolling, breaking 52 USC 30121 OR 2 USC

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ricky towel View Post
    Remember when marijuana was brought up, the response was something like “oh you can keep smoking in your moms basement” or some shit.
    Chill man! Take a hit and eat some Funyuns
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    Old 07-27-2020, 06:52 PM   #264131
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    Re: *Prompter Thread* (NO Personal Attacks, Trolling, breaking 52 USC 30121 OR 2 USC

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mYeAgZ55 View Post
    One time I nailed a bulls eye on dart night with my weak hand.

    Stole this metaphor from another poster, but this is a great metaphor.
    Pennsylvania-

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...nton-5633.html

    Florida-

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...635.html#polls

    Michigan-

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...533.html#polls

    North Carolina-

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...nton-5538.html
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    Old 07-27-2020, 06:52 PM   #264132
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    Re: *Prompter Thread* (NO Personal Attacks, Trolling, breaking 52 USC 30121 OR 2 USC

    Weed should absolutely be fully legalized. It's nonsense that it ain't.

    Especially in my 'Live Free or Die' state... wtf Sununu.
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    Old 07-27-2020, 06:54 PM   #264133
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    Re: *Prompter Thread* (NO Personal Attacks, Trolling, breaking 52 USC 30121 OR 2 USC

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Gene Parmesan View Post
    M4A is too risky an issue to push when you have a substantial lead in a must-win election.

    And it’s obvious which side of the argument has their panties in a bunch.
    Where does "panties in a bunch" fall on the scale compared to "riled up"?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T8ph...e=youtu.be&t=6
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    Old 07-27-2020, 06:55 PM   #264134
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    Re: *Prompter Thread* (NO Personal Attacks, Trolling, breaking 52 USC 30121 OR 2 USC

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by TheLastPig View Post
    Lee, Marvich and Route do this routinely to multiple people.

    We dont need to agree but they seem to be the ones more stuck on bernie than actual bernie supporters
    I was away for a bit so I didn't back read anything since this post, but since my name was mentioned (even though I don't agree with your characterization of my positions vis a vis Dems and Bernie) I'll say that my only point was that it isn't shocking or even mildly interesting that the party platform mostly align with the positions of the nominee going into a presidential election.

    I am very pro M4A fwiw.
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    Last edited by Route_2; 07-27-2020 at 06:56 PM.
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    Old 07-27-2020, 07:09 PM   #264135
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    Re: *Prompter Thread* (NO Personal Attacks, Trolling, breaking 52 USC 30121 OR 2 USC

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mYeAgZ55 View Post
    One time I nailed a bulls eye on dart night with my weak hand.

    Stole this metaphor from another poster, but this is a great metaphor.

    The metaphor that will live in Ants infamy!
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    Old 07-27-2020, 07:09 PM   #264136
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    Re: *Prompter Thread* (NO Personal Attacks, Trolling, breaking 52 USC 30121 OR 2 USC

    I also voted for Bernie in the primary
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    Old 07-27-2020, 07:11 PM   #264137
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    Re: *Prompter Thread* (NO Personal Attacks, Trolling, breaking 52 USC 30121 OR 2 USC

    don't want to dip back into the argument but route is not a troll like lee and marv, route is good
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    Old 07-27-2020, 07:13 PM   #264138
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    Re: *Prompter Thread* (NO Personal Attacks, Trolling, breaking 52 USC 30121 OR 2 USC

    I'm late as usual to this, but the issue that the pro m4a people seem to be overlooking and taking as an attack is the very pertinent point that if your argument is x% of Dems support m4a, the counter to that should be "then why didn't the candidates espousing m4a win the nomination?"

    It's not an attack. It's a question that suggests in its wondering that voters either didn't care that much about m4a, or that they cared more about nominating someone who they felt could beat Trump. It's that simple.

    I'd like to get insurance untangled from one's employment, but not at the expense of an actual victory in November. Moral victories mean nothing to me in 2020. That's me making a choice for pragmatism. Obviously some of the posters itt are well past that concept, and that's fine. But anyone criticizing or questioning a purity stance versus a pragmatic stance isn't a bully or a troll.
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    Last edited by ThatLetter; 07-27-2020 at 07:14 PM.
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    Old 07-27-2020, 07:16 PM   #264139
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    Re: *Prompter Thread* (NO Personal Attacks, Trolling, breaking 52 USC 30121 OR 2 USC

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Dannyyankou View Post
    Trafalgar Nailed South Carolina last year.

    I mean in 2016. I’m tired lol
    They still undershot on HRC's result, though.

    And on all of these, they overstated the Trump result and in most cases they were polling right up through election day. As far as Florida goes, I don't think that's a great example for them anyways. Others had Trump winning and they over shot it pretty good.

    More importantly, though, they had some of the worst 2018 polls and they have consistently been weighting the sample away from recent electorate demographics and that it definitely factoring into the discrepancy of their results.
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    Old 07-27-2020, 07:18 PM   #264140
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    Re: *Prompter Thread* (NO Personal Attacks, Trolling, breaking 52 USC 30121 OR 2 USC

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by TwoStep2888 View Post
    don't want to dip back into the argument but route is not a troll like lee and marv, route is good
    danke. i heart you too.
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    Old 07-27-2020, 07:19 PM   #264141
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    Re: *Prompter Thread* (NO Personal Attacks, Trolling, breaking 52 USC 30121 OR 2 USC

    https://thehill.com/homenews/adminis...ow-first-pitch

    So he was upset because Fauci got some screen time..... huge surprise. Amazing that being president isn’t enough.


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    Old 07-27-2020, 07:24 PM   #264142
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    Re: *Prompter Thread* (NO Personal Attacks, Trolling, breaking 52 USC 30121 OR 2 USC

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by BTBaboon View Post
    They still undershot on HRC's result, though.


    And on all of these, they overstated the Trump result and in most cases they were polling right up through election day. As far as Florida goes, I don't think that's a great example for them anyways. Others had Trump winning and they over shot it pretty good.

    More importantly, though, they had some of the worst 2018 polls and they have consistently been weighting the sample away from recent electorate demographics and that it definitely factoring into the discrepancy of their results.
    By like 1.7% at most. That’s pretty damn close.

    I’m not familiar with their 2018 polls, but maybe they’re worse with down ballot races. But they were pretty spot on with the swing states in 2016.
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    Old 07-27-2020, 07:27 PM   #264143
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    Re: *Prompter Thread* (NO Personal Attacks, Trolling, breaking 52 USC 30121 OR 2 USC

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Dannyyankou View Post
    I’m not familiar with their 2018 polls, but maybe they’re worse with down ballot races. But they were pretty spot on with the swing states in 2016.
    There's a reason they're a C- pollster via 538, that's all
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    Old 07-27-2020, 07:39 PM   #264144
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    Re: *Prompter Thread* (NO Personal Attacks, Trolling, breaking 52 USC 30121 OR 2 USC

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ThatLetter View Post
    I'm late as usual to this, but the issue that the pro m4a people seem to be overlooking and taking as an attack is the very pertinent point that if your argument is x% of Dems support m4a, the counter to that should be "then why didn't the candidates espousing m4a win the nomination?"

    It's not an attack. It's a question that suggests in its wondering that voters either didn't care that much about m4a, or that they cared more about nominating someone who they felt could beat Trump. It's that simple.

    I'd like to get insurance untangled from one's employment, but not at the expense of an actual victory in November. Moral victories mean nothing to me in 2020. That's me making a choice for pragmatism. Obviously some of the posters itt are well past that concept, and that's fine. But anyone criticizing or questioning a purity stance versus a pragmatic stance isn't a bully or a troll.
    If people are voting Biden despite m4a approval, then they might not be mutually exclusive, which means it's not ridiculous to wonder why the DNC shot it down so hard.
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    Old 07-27-2020, 07:46 PM   #264145
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    Re: *Prompter Thread* (NO Personal Attacks, Trolling, breaking 52 USC 30121 OR 2 USC

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by TwoStep2888 View Post
    did you hear about this? did you hear about this?

    Trump said he wasn't going to pitch at the Yankee game after all. Turns out he wasn't even invited!

    On that note I will not be speaking at the DNC next month!

    *Kevin Eubanks guitar riff*


    Quote:
    Originally Posted by dmbolp View Post
    He even called it a strike

    https://youtu.be/645cNMYN2mU
    not bad tbh

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by BTBaboon View Post
    Forgot to grab rodey's post with this one, but what does something beyond studies look like for a fundamental change like M4A?

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by rmp207 View Post
    https://thehill.com/homenews/adminis...ow-first-pitch

    So he was upset because Fauci got some screen time..... huge surprise. Amazing that being president isn’t enough.


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    Old 07-27-2020, 07:53 PM   #264146
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    Re: *Prompter Thread* (NO Personal Attacks, Trolling, breaking 52 USC 30121 OR 2 USC

    Also...

    Personally, I see the trolling/bullying as a chicken/egg situation that I don't know the history of to make heads or tails of. I've seen m4a mentions get anti-Bernie responses and I've seen m4a mentions come attached with (what I presume to be) anticipatory sarcasm.

    My personal issue is to posts like ones drakan makes that make broad statements against Bernie supporters, when I've seen there are plenty of people and responses from them that don't match his stereotypes. There will be a minor squabble, and he comes in and escalates it like he has a personal vendetta.

    And like I told BTB, it annoys me that he's always chiming in with the "time and place"...like things getting a little rowdy in the antsmarching Prompter forum is going to butterfly effect the election into a Trump win. And like I said in the last flare up, the same people who want to mention "yellowtail o'clock" and all that crap suddenly take offense to sarcasm and trolling. How convenient when the discussion revolves around someone pushing something you don't support. Not to mention they have no problem flaming posters who have left the thread or Republicans in general, but as soon as some comes their direction it's woe is me and mind your manners.

    Last edited by Antiramie; 07-27-2020 at 07:55 PM.
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    Old 07-27-2020, 07:57 PM   #264147
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    Re: *Prompter Thread* (NO Personal Attacks, Trolling, breaking 52 USC 30121 OR 2 USC

    During all the times the healthcare issue has been brought up in this thread I haven’t heard one compelling argument as to why people who like their private insurance should be forced onto a government plan instead of simply given the option
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    Old 07-27-2020, 08:02 PM   #264148
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    Re: *Prompter Thread* (NO Personal Attacks, Trolling, breaking 52 USC 30121 OR 2 USC

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by kydmb99 View Post
    During all the times the healthcare issue has been brought up in this thread I haven’t heard one compelling argument as to why people who like their private insurance should be forced onto a government plan instead of simply given the option
    Ok, so you don't support it. And? There are a lot that do.
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    Old 07-27-2020, 08:04 PM   #264149
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    Re: *Prompter Thread* (NO Personal Attacks, Trolling, breaking 52 USC 30121 OR 2 USC

    Marijuana legalization has to poll way better than m4a. Irritating.
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    Old 07-27-2020, 08:07 PM   #264150
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    Re: *Prompter Thread* (NO Personal Attacks, Trolling, breaking 52 USC 30121 OR 2 USC

    The Fake News Media is trying to portray the Portland and Seattle “protesters” as wonderful, sweet and innocent people just out for a little stroll. Actually, they are sick and deranged Anarchists & Agitators who our great men & women of Law Enforcement easily control, but who...

    ...would destroy our American cities, and worse, if Sleepy Joe Biden, the puppet of the Left, ever won. Markets would crash and cities would burn. Our Country would suffer like never before. We will beat the Virus, soon, and go on to the Golden Age - better than ever before!

    https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/...600966658?s=21



    That’s some wild talk.
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