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Old 09-04-2017, 09:03 AM   #181
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Re: 2017 Hurricane Season...

Quote:
Originally Posted by cazzie34 View Post
So Florida now?
ONE option says Florida.

All states should be watching this, but no one run should take precedent over another at teh moment. Too early. The fact that the models keep flip flopping shows its not worth taking any credence to them right now
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  • Old 09-04-2017, 09:07 AM   #182
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    Re: 2017 Hurricane Season...

    Micheal Bressi :

    Quote:
    his image here is one of the reasons Ive been saying that I have favored an out to sea solution with Irma...This shows all Cat 3 hurricanes or better in September and their associated tracks since 1851 within the same area as Irma...Only one actually made a US landfall. Now, I cant ignore that many models do make a landfall of Irma on the southeast coast, but there are some that also only make it a glancing blow or take it out to sea. The bottom line is, we still need to just wait and watch. Once Irma is on the same longitude line as Puerto Rico which will be on Wednesday, we should have an idea if this will have a US impact or not. Until then we wait, I will say that the Northeast Bahama Islands look to potentially take a major hit from this and could cause a lot of problems down there.
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    Old 09-04-2017, 09:09 AM   #183
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    Re: 2017 Hurricane Season...

    if anybody in Texas is installing new sheetrock this week, they're an idiot.

    had that happen to us in 1993. we got four almost six feet of water, demo'd / installed new insulation and sheetrock. basically had it all back together except the damn carpet. got two feet of water four weeks after the first flood.

    that said, i feel like Irma is going to do a banana split back out to bermuda.
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    Old 09-04-2017, 09:09 AM   #184
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    Re: 2017 Hurricane Season...

    Dt:......

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    irst let me apologize for my enforced absence today. Fighting off the heavy cold... But i am doing somewhat better now.

    We will start out by taking a look of the hurricane models early sunday morning and then the midday runs. As i am sure some you know by now all of the hurricane models shifted the track of irma to the west. This included the canadian ..the gfs and the european models. This shift to the west occurred because during saturday the much anticipated wsw movement of irma did take place (which was a movement first forecasted by the european model several days ago). As i and has many others have discussed this movement to the wsw increases the chances of irma passing very close to the leeward islands and puerto rico and eventually through the bahamas and possibly the southeast us

    that being said it appears as of this sunday afternoon or evening ... The wsw movement has now come to an end and irma is now essentially doing due west. During the day on monday tuesday and wednesday the hurricane will begin to shift to wnw track and when the hurricane models to see this shift in the track they will probably shift back to the right to some degree.

    Remember that all the hurricane models and the global models are all based upon to hurricanes currently doing. This is why we saw the shift in the early saturday morning models --because the hurricane and global models correctly detected the wsw movement of irma. We can expect the same sort of reaction on monday when the hurricane models and the global models detect wnw change in direction by hurricane irma.

    That being said it should also be pointed out that all the weather models at some point turn irma to the nw ... Then north then ... Nne and finally ne in a parabolic curve. This is typical with many east cioast hurricanes that threaten or approach the bahamas and eastern u.s. There are exceptiosn to this rule for example hurricane sandy and hurricane isabel. Interestingly in both those cases it w as the european model which 8 days before landfall correctly forecasted that sandy would turn into the new jersey coast and not go out to sea. And it was the european model which correctly forecasted is a isabel making landfall in eastern north carolina and tracking over richmond virginia. And both those cases it was the operational gfs model as well as the gfs ensemble mean which did not correctly detect the strange tracks of hurricane sandy and isabe .
    .
    The question then becomes how far to the west will irma move before she begins to turn to the nw...n... Ne.? This image shows the forecast dilemma. It is a map of the southeastern united states and i highlighted some key geographical features. The 75th west longtime line runs from philadelphia southward to cape hatteras while the 80 west longitude line just to the east of miami. I have highlighted 3 different possible tracks each . The overall tracks are very similar to each other but they have huge implications in terms of the forecast and how people view of the hurricane .

    As you can see the further west or closer to the 80 line to line.. The the bigger the threat of irma reaching southeastern u.s. - south carolina north carolina eastern virginia and the delmarva.

    The 0z saturday operational gfs model continues to be well ...close to worthless piece of crap. I say this because i cannot follow or comprehend why anybody would follow a the model which consistent produces run after run the most extreme outlandish hurricane intensities ever seen the western hemisphere. Run after run the operational gfs model continues to show the most severe intense hurricane of all time in the bahamas and then slamming into southeast as category 5 sometime around september 10. It has been argued by some that while its clear the gfs intensity is way overdoner... They still like this idea of the gfs track.

    And i do not agree that the system is going to be pulled northwest were across western central virginia up into ohio valley with the great lakes. I think that solution is absurd it shows a serious problem that the gfs model has an understanding the upper air pattern.

    The gfs ensembles from early saturday morning are also pretty spread out. On the morning of september 10 there is a pre strong cluster showing irma over the northern bahamas or just to the northeast. Yet by late on september 11 we have a huge spread again with the gfs ensemble showing a landfall somewhere between new jersey and tampa..lol
    the morning european model also shift to the west and again as i stated above track that the irma the took during the overnight hours and for most of saturday into sunday morning. I strongly believe that once irma begins to shift back to the wnw we will see many of the model tracks also shift back to the right. The early saturday morning european has irma very close to florida and threat to us east coastal european ins increase . ( think hurricane floyd in 1999). It is interesting that the operational european again is weaker with no landfall on the u.s.. This is the third run in a row that the operational european model has show this.

    The european ensemble continues to show a tight cluster of members over the bahamas on saturday night september 9/ 160 hours. By day 9.5 we see a bigger spread of the various members but again the vast majority shows the hurricane staying off shore.

    Once again the operational gfs model remains firmly entrenched on the idea of a historic record shattering extreme hurricane a massive as portions slamming into the southeastern u.s.. The model continues or hurricane stronger than hurricane gilbert in 1988 as it approaches the south carolina north carolina wilmington area. This is essentially unchanged from last few model runs. By the morning of september 12 the weakening hurricane is an southwest virginia close to roanoke.

    If you compare the gfs track and timing of when irma makes landfall you will see that it is significantly faster than the european or any other model. Given the fact that the hurricane is not moving very quickly i do not understand how the gfs model has irma reaching the southeast us coast this quickly .



    The gfs ensemble cluster also shows a powerful hurricane up nearing the south carolina coast. But there is a secondary cluster showing the hurricane northern florida. From there the gfs ensembles generally showing track towards kentucky and ohio.

    At midday the operational european model was also unchanged. The model shows a category 4 or 5 hurricane over the southeastern bahamas on the morning of september 8. From there it tracks irma to the nw and right through the heart of the bahamas on september 9 as a category 5 hurricane. This nw h track continues on september 11 as it approaches the carolina coast but then irma bends to the right missing wilmington and cape hatteras and taking the hurricane out to sea. The european ensemble supporters general trend but also has a significant number of members making landfall in florida to georgia andn south carolina. Again the shift in the track of irma developed on saturday..

    Summary as impressive or significant as the shift in all the models early saturday morning was ... It essentially did not change at saturday midday. This is because the wsw movement of irma has essentially come to an end. Over the next couple days as irma begins to swing to the west northwest i suspect the global models and the hurricane models will also shift to the right .

    Down the road this shift will be important because it will determine how close to 80 wst longitude irma will get. As i stated above i see three different possibilities here in terms of landfall more impact. Right now i continue to favor the blue and red lion tracks .
    Lastly should also note that one of the problems with the gfs model is that it continues to be somewhat faster with thirma making landfall on the southeast us coast then the european model. Given the slow movement of the hurricane the idea that it's only going to pick up speed and raced northward into the carolinas is extremely unlikely. This is yet another reason why the gfs model should not be preferred.
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    Old 09-04-2017, 09:10 AM   #185
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    Re: 2017 Hurricane Season...

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by justink View Post
    if anybody in Texas is installing new sheetrock this week, they're an idiot.

    had that happen to us in 1993. we got four almost six feet of water, demo'd / installed new insulation and sheetrock. basically had it all back together except the damn carpet. got two feet of water four weeks after the first flood.

    that said, i feel like Irma is going to do a banana split back out to bermuda.
    so you were the idiot first. got it.
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    Old 09-04-2017, 09:12 AM   #186
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    Re: 2017 Hurricane Season...

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by dre2142 View Post
    so you were the idiot first. got it.
    sure, if you like calling second graders idiots.

    wow, how uncalled for.

    i'm passing on experienced knowledge. there's a very obvious category four storm out there that nobody knows where is going at the moment.

    don't be a dick.
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    Old 09-04-2017, 09:19 AM   #187
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    Re: 2017 Hurricane Season...

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by justink View Post
    sure, if you like calling second graders idiots.

    wow, how uncalled for.

    i'm passing on experienced knowledge. there's a very obvious category four storm out there that nobody knows where is going at the moment.

    don't be a dick.
    its just a very pretentious post by a very pretentious person. of all the things to be point out, that point is pretty stupid.

    so you were a second grader....and have no idea what those people in houston and surrounding cities are going through. trying to get back any piece of semblance of their normal lives.

    those that have the means (not a very high percentage), are doing whatever they can to get their homes back to normal. it wont happen overnight.
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    Old 09-04-2017, 09:25 AM   #188
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    Re: 2017 Hurricane Season...

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    Originally Posted by Lee3691 View Post
    I live in Houston, and started getting information about the storm on Tuesday - I have 2 small children, so I might be out of it, but I am not sure anyone knew about it weeks.

    The damage to Houston, and to the cities east of Houston is not from the hurricane "hitting" the city, but the super storm attached to it.

    But, again, evacuating a city that size isn't a snap of the fingers thing. Some people don't have the money, some people don't have the transportation, and some people have other things that would prevent evacuation. Obviously, for those that got hit the hardest, I am sure they would evacuate if they could go back in time (about 25 to 30% of city had severe flooding), but it's not this magical thing that could just empty the city.
    How did you fare? Which part of Houston do you live in?

    I was all over over the week- Addick, Bellaire, Humble, Downtown, Buffalo Bayou Park, Tranquility Park, Beaumont, the chemical Plant, both big convention centers, etc.

    It was amazing how fast the water rose, and amazing how fast it dropped, west to east.

    On sunday morning driving to my hotel from the airport, (I couldnt get to my original hotel which was up near medical center on main street), i actually had a few moments of full on fear of not being able to get off the 610. was pretty bad and only got worse over the next day.
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    Old 09-04-2017, 09:32 AM   #189
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    Re: 2017 Hurricane Season...

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by dre2142 View Post
    How did you fare? Which part of Houston do you live in?

    I was all over over the week- Addick, Bellaire, Humble, Downtown, Buffalo Bayou Park, Tranquility Park, Beaumont, the chemical Plant, both big convention centers, etc.

    It was amazing how fast the water rose, and amazing how fast it dropped, west to east.

    On sunday morning driving to my hotel from the airport, (I couldnt get to my original hotel which was up near medical center on main street), i actually had a few moments of full on fear of not being able to get off the 610. was pretty bad and only got worse over the next day.
    My neighborhood did fine, barely a puddle - although there were other places near us that flooded out completely. I am in NW Houston suburbs.

    That chemical plant is some scary shit.
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    Old 09-04-2017, 09:54 AM   #190
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    Re: 2017 Hurricane Season...

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by dre2142 View Post
    its just a very pretentious post by a very pretentious person. of all the things to be point out, that point is pretty stupid.

    so you were a second grader....and have no idea what those people in houston and surrounding cities are going through. trying to get back any piece of semblance of their normal lives.

    those that have the means (not a very high percentage), are doing whatever they can to get their homes back to normal. it wont happen overnight.
    are you fucking kidding me? are you trying to act like you know more about this than i do?
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    Old 09-04-2017, 11:34 AM   #191
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    Re: 2017 Hurricane Season...

    Everyone in south florida is apparently freaking out. No water on the shelves anywhere.
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    Old 09-04-2017, 11:43 AM   #192
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    Re: 2017 Hurricane Season...

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    Originally Posted by justink View Post
    are you fucking kidding me? are you trying to act like you know more about this than i do?
    I guess I missed where you posted up on how this hurricane personally affected you.

    where do you live?
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    Old 09-04-2017, 12:43 PM   #193
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    Re: 2017 Hurricane Season...

    The pressures that are being linked to Irma are scary. Could be very very very bad for the Caribbean and South Florida (if it continues on a westward course). Looks like it might hook north and lose some steam though before making landfall in Georgia/S Carolina.
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    Old 09-04-2017, 12:49 PM   #194
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    Re: 2017 Hurricane Season...

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by emu513 View Post
    The pressures that are being linked to Irma are scary. Could be very very very bad for the Caribbean and South Florida (if it continues on a westward course). Looks like it might hook north and lose some steam though before making landfall in Georgia/S Carolina.
    The pressures are overdone on the GFS. But even if it's overdone by like 30-40mb, you're still looking at a Cat 3-4 storm. Bad news either way.
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    Old 09-04-2017, 07:39 PM   #195
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    Re: 2017 Hurricane Season...

    Any new runs this evening?
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    Old 09-04-2017, 07:41 PM   #196
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    Re: 2017 Hurricane Season...

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by dre2142 View Post
    I guess I missed where you posted up on how this hurricane personally affected you.

    where do you live?
    um... Houston.

    somebody was definitely being pretentious earlier. and it wasn't me.

    Last edited by justink; 09-04-2017 at 07:43 PM.
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    Old 09-04-2017, 07:42 PM   #197
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    Re: 2017 Hurricane Season...

    Jesus Christ justink just shut the fuck up for once. Why does everything with you turn into an argument?

    People need to chill the fuck out in this thread.
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    Old 09-04-2017, 11:39 PM   #198
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    Re: 2017 Hurricane Season...

    Dunno what ink and dre are fighting about and don't care to backread (like seriously DGAF). Irma is about to crush. Hope this somehow goes OTS, but that window is shrinking fast. Watch out, entire state of FL, up to NC.
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    Old 09-05-2017, 12:31 AM   #199
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    Re: 2017 Hurricane Season...

    hoping Irma doesn't do too much damage, wherever it goes
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    Old 09-05-2017, 12:57 AM   #200
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    Re: 2017 Hurricane Season...

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by scrock25 View Post
    Jesus Christ justink just shut the fuck up for once. Why does everything with you turn into an argument?

    People need to chill the fuck out in this thread.
    Because people like you attack me constantly. For no reason. Heed your own advice.

    Last edited by justink; 09-05-2017 at 12:59 AM.
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    Old 09-05-2017, 01:44 AM   #201
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    Re: 2017 Hurricane Season...

    Forget about the eye of the hurricane. Focus on Houston in this gif.

    It was never NOT raining.

    https://gfycat.com/WanTepidEwe
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    Old 09-05-2017, 08:16 AM   #202
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    Re: 2017 Hurricane Season...

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by justink View Post
    Because people like you attack me constantly. For no reason. Heed your own advice.
    To be fair, you missed this hurricane.

    But yeah, let's drop this. Another one is coming.
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    Old 09-05-2017, 08:45 AM   #203
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    Re: 2017 Hurricane Season...

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Lee3691 View Post
    To be fair, you missed this hurricane.

    But yeah, let's drop this. Another one is coming.
    Im headed to miami/fort lauderdale Thursday night. Crazy that we have two major powerhouses back to back like this.
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    Old 09-05-2017, 08:48 AM   #204
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    Re: 2017 Hurricane Season...

    We are supposed to be heading to Manasota Key this week.
    Our original flight was Thursday - Sunday (flying into Punta Gorda).

    We are considering buying tickets into Orlando Wednesday (tomorrow) - Saturday. I wanted to reschedule altogether, but the house we're using (company beach house) is booked every remaining weekend until November. We're clearly not going Thursday - Sunday, but I haven't committed to Wed - Sat yet. I'm concerned the weather is going to start to suck by Friday & I don't want to get stuck there Saturday. I'm not sure what to do.
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    Old 09-05-2017, 08:53 AM   #205
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    Re: 2017 Hurricane Season...

    I just came into the Ft Myers area a couple days ago for a two week vacation. This is fine. *flames*
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    Old 09-05-2017, 08:53 AM   #206
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    Re: 2017 Hurricane Season...

    This one is not going to be fun for Florida....keeping an eye on it for sure.
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    Old 09-05-2017, 08:59 AM   #207
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    Re: 2017 Hurricane Season...

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by UCFish View Post
    This one is not going to be fun for Florida....keeping an eye on it for sure.
    Same here. We've got Disney on Ice tickets for Sunday!
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    Old 09-05-2017, 09:05 AM   #208
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    Re: 2017 Hurricane Season...

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mandy18 View Post
    We are supposed to be heading to Manasota Key this week.
    Our original flight was Thursday - Sunday (flying into Punta Gorda).

    We are considering buying tickets into Orlando Wednesday (tomorrow) - Saturday. I wanted to reschedule altogether, but the house we're using (company beach house) is booked every remaining weekend until November. We're clearly not going Thursday - Sunday, but I haven't committed to Wed - Sat yet. I'm concerned the weather is going to start to suck by Friday & I don't want to get stuck there Saturday. I'm not sure what to do.
    How funny, my family has had a condo on Manasota Key for years now. Just visited a few weeks ago. Love it there.

    Good luck on the decision! My dad is supposed to come to Fort Lauderdale this weekend. Trying to get him to stay in Chicago
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    Old 09-05-2017, 09:30 AM   #209
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    Re: 2017 Hurricane Season...

    Irma's eye is insane right now on satellite/radar.
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    Old 09-05-2017, 10:55 AM   #210
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    Re: 2017 Hurricane Season...

    https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/sta...80927948349440
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