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-   -   The NHL Thread (https://www.antsmarching.org/forum/showthread.php?t=324692)

Rebecca De Mornay 10-31-2013 10:19 AM

Re: The NHL 2013-14 Thread
 
I'll allow it

fonzz41 10-31-2013 10:23 AM

Re: The NHL 2013-14 Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by bonzo48280 (Post 14892059)
the inevitable 12-game pointless streak by Colorado is going to be a real hoot.

I am legitimately afraid of this, even with Varly in the lineup.

The team has faced no real adversity up until now. Ive been interested all season in seeing how they handle it.

Bron Yr Aur 10-31-2013 10:26 AM

Re: The NHL 2013-14 Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by lockman21 (Post 14892142)
I can't believe that I just provided 4 or 5 examples 100% disproving that "teams just don't go from one of the worst to one of the best overnight" and your answer is that the Hawks had Coach Q and awesome puck possession.

Amazing.

I'm not going to spend my afternoon investigating each one of those examples you provided. I stand corrected, certainly you have shown that quick turnarounds can happen in the NHL.

I will instead take the position that nothing other than Colorado's early-season record supports the notion that they have truly turned it around. They certainly have plenty of talent but I think they need to improve their peripheral statistics to sustain their success. And because their puck possession is pretty poor, they shouldn't become desperate in looking for a goalie and potentially jeopardize future success by giving up too much.

swordo84 10-31-2013 10:30 AM

Re: The NHL 2013-14 Thread
 
Avs just traded Steve Downie for Max Talbot.

Rebecca De Mornay 10-31-2013 10:31 AM

Re: The NHL 2013-14 Thread
 
Bron, can you post NHL ranks for puck posession? I'm actually interested to see it.

bradshaw06 10-31-2013 10:36 AM

Re: The NHL 2013-14 Thread
 
Yes. Now i can like Talbot again

salrx95 10-31-2013 10:37 AM

Re: The NHL 2013-14 Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Rebecca De Mornay (Post 14892156)
Can Roy still play?

he could still win a goalie brawl or at least be willing to start one, I'm sure of that.

Bron Yr Aur 10-31-2013 10:44 AM

Re: The NHL 2013-14 Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Rebecca De Mornay (Post 14892201)
Bron, can you post NHL ranks for puck posession? I'm actually interested to see it.

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/team...T&sortdir=DESC

This is a good website. To my knowledge, nobody keeps track of time of possession. Instead, Corsi (shots on goal + missed shots + blocked shots) is used as a proxy for puck possession. The idea being that the team that spends more time in the offensive zone will have a higher number of pucks directed at the opposition's goal.

So, not that hard of an idea and I"m not sure why some folks react so negatively toward it. The fact is, wins are determined by goals scored. So at the end of the day, these statistics don't always predict what will happen. Of course they don't.

But! The sample size for goals scored is very small and therefore very difficult to use to predict what will happen in the future. That's why many people use Corsi events, because we have thousands of these events per team per season. Sample is larger and more reliable.

Look at the numbers last year. You have LA, Boston, Chicago near the top. Look at 09-10, where the Hawks were absolutely dominant in their Coris/Fenwick/Shots numbers and won the Cup.

fonzz41 10-31-2013 10:46 AM

Re: The NHL 2013-14 Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by swordo84 (Post 14892197)
Avs just traded Steve Downie for Max Talbot.

Conflicted with how I feel about this, but leaning more towards liking it.

On one hand, Talbot is the epitome of a hockey player. His attitude and Stanley Cup experience is everything you want a young team to see first hand. I'm very excited for that reason.

However, Downie has really matured and found great chemistry with Duchene and O'Reilly playing on the top line. He's proven he can hang out on top lines while still providing sand paper and grit that's given Duch and O'Reilly more freedom to make things happen. His loss will be felt on that top line and on a foreward core that is high on speed and finesse, but lower on grit.

~Crashintome89~ 10-31-2013 11:13 AM

Re: The NHL 2013-14 Thread
 
Talbot for Downie straight up.

Ugh.

lockman21 10-31-2013 11:21 AM

Re: The NHL 2013-14 Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Bron Yr Aur (Post 14892182)
I'm not going to spend my afternoon investigating each one of those examples you provided. I stand corrected, certainly you have shown that quick turnarounds can happen in the NHL.

I will instead take the position that nothing other than Colorado's early-season record supports the notion that they have truly turned it around. They certainly have plenty of talent but I think they need to improve their peripheral statistics to sustain their success. And because their puck possession is pretty poor, they shouldn't become desperate in looking for a goalie and potentially jeopardize future success by giving up too much.

Ok...let me try and explain this to you in some way you might understand...

http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat...sion-net-of-ot

Tell me...are the Bucs a better team than the Patriots because they have a better average time of possession?

It's along the same idea (but probably an even less relevant stat in hockey), obviously you'd love to possess the puck more than the other team (same in football you'd rather be on offense than defense), but it is FAR from telling the whole story.

I've said this to you before, and I'll say it again, take stats with a grain of salt.

Hockey is a crazy game, and isn't baseball, but you keep trying to make it that way.

lockman21 10-31-2013 11:24 AM

Re: The NHL 2013-14 Thread
 
The only thing the Avs need to "prove" to anyone is that 10-1-0 record. That doesn't happen by accident.

lockman21 10-31-2013 11:25 AM

Re: The NHL 2013-14 Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by fonzz41 (Post 14892236)
Conflicted with how I feel about this, but leaning more towards liking it.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ~Crashintome89~ (Post 14892321)
Talbot for Downie straight up.

Ugh.

That about sums it up :lol

fonzz41 10-31-2013 11:37 AM

Re: The NHL 2013-14 Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by lockman21 (Post 14892366)
That about sums it up :lol

:lol :thumbsup

Don't be too worried, Matt. Downie has proven all year he can play on top lines while still providing grit. He's also stopped taking dumb penalties. We'll see if that continues as he plays for the Flyers.

Love Talbot, but another thing I worry about is disrupting team chemistry after a start like this one. Now, Varly's already done a good job of that in the last couple days, but you hate to shake up the lineup too much when you're 10-1. The timing of this trade is interesting... maybe to take everyone's minds off of Varly a little? Or just coincidence?

kev87lads 10-31-2013 11:46 AM

Re: The NHL 2013-14 Thread
 
This trade smells of Homer's usual awfulness.

TMoore4075 10-31-2013 11:53 AM

Re: The NHL 2013-14 Thread
 
I don't really understand the trade personally. Was this needed by either team?

TMoore4075 10-31-2013 11:57 AM

Re: The NHL 2013-14 Thread
 
Non-hockey related, I did get a second interview so I guess I did at least ok in that first one.

bonzo48280 10-31-2013 12:05 PM

Re: The NHL 2013-14 Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Bron Yr Aur (Post 14892233)
http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/team...T&sortdir=DESC

This is a good website. To my knowledge, nobody keeps track of time of possession. Instead, Corsi (shots on goal + missed shots + blocked shots) is used as a proxy for puck possession. The idea being that the team that spends more time in the offensive zone will have a higher number of pucks directed at the opposition's goal.

So, not that hard of an idea and I"m not sure why some folks react so negatively toward it. The fact is, wins are determined by goals scored. So at the end of the day, these statistics don't always predict what will happen. Of course they don't.

But! The sample size for goals scored is very small and therefore very difficult to use to predict what will happen in the future. That's why many people use Corsi events, because we have thousands of these events per team per season. Sample is larger and more reliable.

Look at the numbers last year. You have LA, Boston, Chicago near the top. Look at 09-10, where the Hawks were absolutely dominant in their Coris/Fenwick/Shots numbers and won the Cup.

I'm with you on this, not fully, but I am. there's something to be said for puck possession but there is also something to be said for be able to keep the puck out of the net (defense and stud goaltending) and being able to score. Phoenix was 12th last season according to that site but didn't even make the playoffs while Minnesota was 21st and did. Minnesota can score better than Phoenix, but Phoenix can play better defense. you have to be able to put the puck in the net is what it comes down to.

Quote:

Originally Posted by lockman21 (Post 14892349)
Ok...let me try and explain this to you in some way you might understand...

http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat...sion-net-of-ot

Tell me...are the Bucs a better team than the Patriots because they have a better average time of possession?

It's along the same idea (but probably an even less relevant stat in hockey), obviously you'd love to possess the puck more than the other team (same in football you'd rather be on offense than defense), but it is FAR from telling the whole story.

I've said this to you before, and I'll say it again, take stats with a grain of salt.

Hockey is a crazy game, and isn't baseball, but you keep trying to make it that way.

I don't like this comparison, at all. These are two COMPLETELY different sports. There are so many more factors that have nothing to do with hockey.

- in hockey the same guys play offense and defense, it's not that way in football, obviously. If your time of possession is higher, it means your defense is getting off the field more. worse defenses are towards the bottom of that list. Tampa Bay is a top 10 defense in terms of yardage allowed, so the offense gets the ball more than most teams, and their offense is 2nd to last in points and dead last in points per game. the theory of "the more you have the puck the less they can score" in hockey does not translate to "the more you have the ball the less they can score" in football. There are too many seperate factors.

I absolutely agree that you need to take stats with a grain of salt, but to completely discredit advanced stats is wrong. There is absolutely a correlation between successful playoff teams being at the top of Bron's list every single year and unsuccessful teams being towards the bottom. you can't say that about time of possession in football.

Quote:

Originally Posted by lockman21 (Post 14892362)
The only thing the Avs need to "prove" to anyone is that 10-1-0 record. That doesn't happen by accident.

Minnesota makes the playoffs in 11-12 through half the year and LA doesn't. we all know how that year ended. Let's let this breathe a little more. It's still early.

Bron Yr Aur 10-31-2013 12:10 PM

Re: The NHL 2013-14 Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by lockman21 (Post 14892349)
Ok...let me try and explain this to you in some way you might understand...

http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat...sion-net-of-ot

Tell me...are the Bucs a better team than the Patriots because they have a better average time of possession?

It's along the same idea (but probably an even less relevant stat in hockey), obviously you'd love to possess the puck more than the other team (same in football you'd rather be on offense than defense), but it is FAR from telling the whole story.

I've said this to you before, and I'll say it again, take stats with a grain of salt.

Hockey is a crazy game, and isn't baseball, but you keep trying to make it that way.

What. This is ridiculous. We aren't talking about football. You cannot compare the two things like this.

Of course shots do not tell the whole story. And goals tell us what happened, but not necessarily what will happen. Shots give us at least something that has some predictive quality this early in the season.

Not sure why you are trying to compare this to football/baseball/whatever. The fact is, in all sporting leagues (be it the NBA, NFL, MLB, EPL, NHL), statistics are being utilized more and more to provide a more unbiased examination of teams and players. Not sure why the fans are so resistant to the idea.

fonzz41 10-31-2013 12:25 PM

Re: The NHL 2013-14 Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by TMoore4075 (Post 14892493)
I don't really understand the trade personally. Was this needed by either team?

Not necessarily needed, but I see the logic.

Avs get a guy who's been to the Finals twice and plays like a champion. Coach Roy will want his players watching everything Talbot does... in the locker room, the weight room, practice, video sessions, and during games. I'm positive he was brought in more for his attitude than his skill. Which shouldn't be doubted. He will add needed defensive responsibility and grit to the third line. Like I said before, the Avs are lacking in toughness up front.

Philly gets a tough customer who can play on the top two lines. He won't contribute as much, but he will open up space for the skill players like OMGCG and Vinny.
Quote:

Originally Posted by TMoore4075 (Post 14892510)
Non-hockey related, I did get a second interview so I guess I did at least ok in that first one.

Awesome! So the whole goalie thing is gonna work out, eh?

lockman21 10-31-2013 12:47 PM

Re: The NHL 2013-14 Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Bron Yr Aur (Post 14892560)
What. This is ridiculous. We aren't talking about football. You cannot compare the two things like this.

Of course shots do not tell the whole story. And goals tell us what happened, but not necessarily what will happen. Shots give us at least something that has some predictive quality this early in the season.

Not sure why you are trying to compare this to football/baseball/whatever. The fact is, in all sporting leagues (be it the NBA, NFL, MLB, EPL, NHL), statistics are being utilized more and more to provide a more unbiased examination of teams and players. Not sure why the fans are so resistant to the idea.

Ugh.

I compared it to football because you clearly don't understand hockey and was just trying to put it into perspective of a more universal sport. I'm not saying the two are exactly the same.

I officially give up on you. I tried.

http://youtu.be/MVYA-WS56J8

Bron Yr Aur 10-31-2013 12:51 PM

Re: The NHL 2013-14 Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by lockman21 (Post 14892660)
Ugh.

I compared it to football because you clearly don't understand hockey and was just trying to put it into perspective of a more universal sport. I'm not saying the two are exactly the same.

I officially give up on you. I tried.

This statement doesn't even make sense.

TMoore4075 10-31-2013 12:53 PM

Re: The NHL 2013-14 Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by fonzz41 (Post 14892597)

Awesome! So the whole goalie thing is gonna work out, eh?

Looks that way. I mean the Avs called me up at the last minute. Apparently something happened last night with theirs.

fonzz41 10-31-2013 12:56 PM

Re: The NHL 2013-14 Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by TMoore4075 (Post 14892673)
Looks that way. I mean the Avs called me up at the last minute. Apparently something happened last night with theirs.

Tim Moore: the ace up Joe Sakic's sleeve.

fonzz41 10-31-2013 02:25 PM

Re: The NHL 2013-14 Thread
 
@ryanparkerdp: #Avalanche say team will not replace #Varlamov, and he is traveling with the team to take on Dallas tomorrow night.

Geez

lockman21 10-31-2013 02:58 PM

Re: The NHL 2013-14 Thread
 
Wwoooowww. Traveling with the team?

fonzz41 10-31-2013 03:12 PM

Re: The NHL 2013-14 Thread
 
Roy continues to say a great big f$&@ you to everyone not on his team.

JRS1386 10-31-2013 04:43 PM

Re: The NHL 2013-14 Thread
 
I miss the Towel Bot

barbogast 11-01-2013 05:07 AM

Re: The NHL 2013-14 Thread
 
So there's no way Varly is actually gonna play tonight is there? The fact that he's traveling and dressing is mind blowing to me. This is a pretty embarrassing situation for the NHL and for the Avalanche in particular. Obviously no one blames them for what Varly did, but they're still gonna allow him to dress?? Pretty ballsy if you ask me.

Still can't believe this is Varlamov involved in all this. I mean I know he wasn't the Caps goalie for THAT long, but he is the guy that was in net for us when we won the Classic, and also the goalie who made the most unbelievable save I've ever personally witnessed live at an NHL game.

The whole story is just bananas.

fonzz41 11-01-2013 07:44 AM

Re: The NHL 2013-14 Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by barbogast (Post 14893493)
So there's no way Varly is actually gonna play tonight is there? The fact that he's traveling and dressing is mind blowing to me. This is a pretty embarrassing situation for the NHL and for the Avalanche in particular. Obviously no one blames them for what Varly did, but they're still gonna allow him to dress?? Pretty ballsy if you ask me.

Still can't believe this is Varlamov involved in all this. I mean I know he wasn't the Caps goalie for THAT long, but he is the guy that was in net for us when we won the Classic, and also the goalie who made the most unbelievable save I've ever personally witnessed live at an NHL game.

The whole story is just bananas.

Roy gonna Roy.

Reports saying Jiggy will be in net tonight.

But yeah, I agree that it's crazy. There's the whole "innocent until proven guilty" thing, but...

You have to wonder how the fans in Dallas will treat him. The fans there are fairly apathetic compared to other cities, but he might take some crap.


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