Quote:
Originally Posted by Jake
18k - 25% = 4500
Every venue has 1500 local hard cores.
Just a theory... But that's 1500 hard cores & 1500 randoms per 2013 show, roughly
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Yes I completely understand. What I am skeptical about is this 25% number, which, with all due respect, seems to have come straight out of your ass.
To me it seems preposterous and largely endogenous to where you are sitting. If you want to tell me that 25% of the drunk screaming college kids on the lawn at SPAC are 20+ show hardcore fans I'll tell you that you're nuts. Every local high school and college within half an hour seems to take DMB and Phish at SPAC for that weekend's party. On the other hand, sit inside and you will find more hardcores.
But still, where do you get 25%? Also, the assumption that these 25% who are hardcores are sensitive to set lists is, in my opinion, very questionable.
A hard core fan can mean one of two things. A) you've seen the band a lot and are picky about songs. B) Because you are nuts enough to have seen the same band 50+ times (like I have), you like them so much that you are likely not going to change your behavior all that much because Shake Me Like a Monkey gets played often and a Crazy Easy--> Get In Line encore doesn't come out every weekend.
SPAC was show 51 for me. The set lists have sort of sucked recently. This summer I'm going to 8 shows. Not all hard cores can be expected to behave the same way, right?
Lastly, the assumption that the full drop in attendance is due to set lists is complete bogus. There are 20 other factors that could have potentially contributed. Aging fan bases, show schedules, cost of attending shows (gas, hotel, etc...), more demanding work schedules, etc...
What do you think?