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Old 06-08-2014, 06:31 PM   #1
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Ants Podcast: Episode 37

This was supposed to be one of those episodes where we all just sort of stare at each other with nothing to say. Dave Matthews Band must have been jonesin' for another episode, however, and pulled out a guest appearance that they knew would send the community into a frenzy: The Lovely Ladies. Jake and Matt actually land on the same side for this one (before Jake tries to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory), while Joe waxes optimistic. This week's episode is available on Stitcher, which is an awesome app for podcasts if you aren't familiar. If you don't have one of those iPhone things, it's likely the best way to listen on the go! Of course, it's also listed on iTunes as well. Please free to share your thoughts in the discussion thread! (Click the comments bubble below)

We hope you enjoy this latest episode of the Ants Podcast. We'll see you next week!
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  • Old 06-08-2014, 09:28 PM   #2
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    Re: Ants Podcast: Episode 37

    What version of Watchtower was played for the first intermission on tonights podcast.
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    Old 06-08-2014, 09:34 PM   #3
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    Re: Ants Podcast: Episode 37

    Jake, do you have any data or sources to back up your claim about drop offs from hardcores around 2012? Or any source in general to back up the fact that hard cores are going to less shows? Seem to be large claims that may only be backed up by the overall attitudes on the forum's here (of which posters represent any incredible small size of the DMB fan base).
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    Old 06-09-2014, 04:42 AM   #4
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    Re: Ants Podcast: Episode 37

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by packbg480 View Post
    Jake, do you have any data or sources to back up your claim about drop offs from hardcores around 2012? Or any source in general to back up the fact that hard cores are going to less shows? Seem to be large claims that may only be backed up by the overall attitudes on the forum's here (of which posters represent any incredible small size of the DMB fan base).
    there was a dropoff from 2012 to 2013. it's roughly 3000 a show.



    in 2013, a large percentage of people I'd call 'hardcores' openly opined that they would not go to shows during that tour. I contend that the hardcore fan makes up 25% of the crowd - they may not all be Ants, but they consider themselves a hardcore fan (lets just say 20+ shows for ease). an 18k crowd makes it 4500 people every show that are 'hardcore'.


    My theory is that despite what you might think, every venue has at least 3000 hardcore fans. They might not all be on here posting all the time, but they know Help Myself, are sick of Shake Me, and all the other characteristics of a hardcore fan. Given the set lists, the economy, the gas prices, and the general malaise of the country, 1500 fans stay home every show that otherwise would attend. That's why 2013 was smaller, and why 2014 isn't back to 2012 numbers despite #DMB2SETS




    my old theory was that hardcores made up 10% of the crowd, but after 2013, I realized that the number was way too small, and the hardcore is much larger and more knowledgeable, it's just that they are not traveling as much anymore.


    just like "It's the economy, stupid." "It's the songs, stupid." All the #DMB2SETS in the world isn't going to work.
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    Old 06-09-2014, 04:51 AM   #5
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    Re: Ants Podcast: Episode 37

    Interesting theory.
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    Old 06-09-2014, 07:24 AM   #6
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    Re: Ants Podcast: Episode 37

    Listening to the show now, having a few good laughs. Thanks for the podcasts, guys!

    I have to know, what Watchtower was the Stefan bass interlude from during the break? That was fantastic!
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    Old 06-09-2014, 07:34 AM   #7
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    Re: Ants Podcast: Episode 37

    Jake, Twitter campaigns for songs have worked in the past.

    2009 - Deer Creek - Say Goodbye
    2010 - Deer Creek - Warehouse
    2012 - Deer Creek - Typical Situations
    2013 - Deer Creek - Spoon w/ B Carlile

    And this year they're trying for Hello Again.
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    Old 06-09-2014, 08:21 AM   #8
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    Re: Ants Podcast: Episode 37

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by TehCreekFluff View Post
    Jake, Twitter campaigns for songs have worked in the past.

    2009 - Deer Creek - Say Goodbye
    2010 - Deer Creek - Warehouse
    2012 - Deer Creek - Typical Situations
    2013 - Deer Creek - Spoon w/ B Carlile

    And this year they're trying for Hello Again.
    how about all the times it didn't come close to working?


    we remember the good times...
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    Old 06-09-2014, 08:27 AM   #9
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    Re: Ants Podcast: Episode 37

    The only twitter campaign should be for #MonkeyMan
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    Old 06-09-2014, 08:50 AM   #10
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    Re: Ants Podcast: Episode 37

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Jake View Post
    how about all the times it didn't come close to working?


    we remember the good times...
    I may be wrong, but I thought in the Podcast you said, "Show me a time it's worked."

    Was just pointing out it has worked before. In 2013 some of the fans did Spoon and some did Monkey Man. Obviously MM didn't get played, so there's a time it didn't work. And in 2011 it didn't work, because there wasn't any Deer Creek shows.
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    Old 06-09-2014, 08:51 AM   #11
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    Re: Ants Podcast: Episode 37

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by TehCreekFluff View Post
    I may be wrong, but I thought in the Podcast you said, "Show me a time it's worked."

    Was just pointing out it has worked before. In 2013 some of the fans did Spoon and some did Monkey Man. Obviously MM didn't get played, so there's a time it didn't work. And in 2011 it didn't work, because there wasn't any Deer Creek shows.
    I know the Typ Sit worked in 09, but I dont' remember Spoon for Deer Creek
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    Old 06-09-2014, 09:14 AM   #12
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    Re: Ants Podcast: Episode 37

    I personally know many people who have been to a handful (10 or less) of shows. I've also met numerous people since going to shows in 1998, all of whom have been to 10 or less. I know that's a small sampling, but I find it hard to believe that 25% of people at most shows have been to 20 or more DMB concerts. I'm sure that changes venue to venue. 10% has got to be a better number.
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    Old 06-09-2014, 09:52 AM   #13
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    Re: Ants Podcast: Episode 37

    I know people who have been to 10 or less shows myself included
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    Old 06-09-2014, 10:52 AM   #14
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    Re: Ants Podcast: Episode 37

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Jake View Post
    how about all the times it didn't come close to working?


    we remember the good times...
    As someone posted above, Deer Creek is 4 for 4 when it comes to twitter campaigns. We remember the good times because there have only been good times...
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    Old 06-09-2014, 11:24 AM   #15
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    Re: Ants Podcast: Episode 37

    So there were twitter campaigns that didnt work??
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    Old 06-09-2014, 11:25 AM   #16
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    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Jake View Post
    I know the Typ Sit worked in 09, but I dont' remember Spoon for Deer Creek

    Say goodbye 2009
    Warehouse 2010
    Typical 2012
    Spoon 2013

    Just in case you need to reference it again.
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    Old 06-09-2014, 11:32 AM   #17
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    Re: Ants Podcast: Episode 37

    I remember Mansfield doing a #Minarets4Mansfield campaign in 2012 and it debuted there that summer.
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    Old 06-09-2014, 11:33 AM   #18
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    Re: Ants Podcast: Episode 37

    #AngelCamden
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    Old 06-09-2014, 11:37 AM   #19
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    Re: Ants Podcast: Episode 37

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Jake View Post
    #AngelCamden
    #WhatYouNeed
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    Old 06-09-2014, 11:43 AM   #20
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    Re: Ants Podcast: Episode 37

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by DoDaFoo View Post
    #WhatYouNeed
    #CountYourCards
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    Old 06-09-2014, 12:41 PM   #21
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    Re: Ants Podcast: Episode 37

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Jake View Post
    there was a dropoff from 2012 to 2013. it's roughly 3000 a show.



    in 2013, a large percentage of people I'd call 'hardcores' openly opined that they would not go to shows during that tour. I contend that the hardcore fan makes up 25% of the crowd - they may not all be Ants, but they consider themselves a hardcore fan (lets just say 20+ shows for ease). an 18k crowd makes it 4500 people every show that are 'hardcore'.


    My theory is that despite what you might think, every venue has at least 3000 hardcore fans. They might not all be on here posting all the time, but they know Help Myself, are sick of Shake Me, and all the other characteristics of a hardcore fan. Given the set lists, the economy, the gas prices, and the general malaise of the country, 1500 fans stay home every show that otherwise would attend. That's why 2013 was smaller, and why 2014 isn't back to 2012 numbers despite #DMB2SETS




    my old theory was that hardcores made up 10% of the crowd, but after 2013, I realized that the number was way too small, and the hardcore is much larger and more knowledgeable, it's just that they are not traveling as much anymore.


    just like "It's the economy, stupid." "It's the songs, stupid." All the #DMB2SETS in the world isn't going to work.
    Not to keep playing devil's advocate, but a lot of what you just said (besides the 3000 a show) is complete speculation on your part. The 25% number seems to have come out of mid air.

    Also, how do you know that the 3000 per show drop off has anything to do with set list selection? There are plenty of other factors. Overall concert attendance nationwide, gas prices, incomes, an aging fan base, and 2012 was an album year. Also, 2012 was right after a year that the band played all of 9 shows, so demand for tickets will be higher off of the bat.

    I'm actually currently studying economics and applied math (and hoping to receive my PhD down the road). I would love to actually calculate what is going on here! What we're looking for is the set list elasticity of DMB concert attendance. I'd be happy to contact the almanac, but I need attendance numbers. Would you have access to those Jake (outside the occasional Billboard release that is debatably accurate)?
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    Old 06-09-2014, 01:04 PM   #22
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    Re: Ants Podcast: Episode 37

    Jake has a habit of stating his speculation as fact. It's not just you.

    #StirThePot
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    Old 06-09-2014, 01:28 PM   #23
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    Re: Ants Podcast: Episode 37

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Hershey2004 View Post
    Listening to the show now, having a few good laughs. Thanks for the podcasts, guys!

    I have to know, what Watchtower was the Stefan bass interlude from during the break? That was fantastic!
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by UrsadonDMB View Post
    What version of Watchtower was played for the first intermission on tonights podcast.
    That was SPAC N1 from this year, the intro that Joe was talking about at some point during the podcast. Download it here!

    http://antsmarching.org/forum/showthread.php?t=330801
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    Old 06-09-2014, 01:30 PM   #24
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    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Matt View Post
    That was SPAC N1 from this year, the intro that Joe was talking about at some point during the podcast. Download it here!



    http://antsmarching.org/forum/showthread.php?t=330801

    I remember Joe talking about that now that you mention it. Definitely Downloading this version.
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    Old 06-09-2014, 01:42 PM   #25
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    Re: Ants Podcast: Episode 37

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Matt View Post
    That was SPAC N1 from this year, the intro that Joe was talking about at some point during the podcast. Download it here!

    http://antsmarching.org/forum/showthread.php?t=330801


    It says a lot when a version of Watchtower stands out from the pack.
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    Old 06-09-2014, 02:28 PM   #26
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    Re: Ants Podcast: Episode 37

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by packbg480 View Post
    Not to keep playing devil's advocate, but a lot of what you just said (besides the 3000 a show) is complete speculation on your part. The 25% number seems to have come out of mid air.

    Also, how do you know that the 3000 per show drop off has anything to do with set list selection? There are plenty of other factors. Overall concert attendance nationwide, gas prices, incomes, an aging fan base, and 2012 was an album year. Also, 2012 was right after a year that the band played all of 9 shows, so demand for tickets will be higher off of the bat.

    I'm actually currently studying economics and applied math (and hoping to receive my PhD down the road). I would love to actually calculate what is going on here! What we're looking for is the set list elasticity of DMB concert attendance. I'd be happy to contact the almanac, but I need attendance numbers. Would you have access to those Jake (outside the occasional Billboard release that is debatably accurate)?
    18k - 25% = 4500

    Every venue has 1500 local hard cores.



    Just a theory... But that's 1500 hard cores & 1500 randoms per 2013 show, roughly
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    Old 06-09-2014, 03:45 PM   #27
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    Re: Ants Podcast: Episode 37

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Jake View Post
    18k - 25% = 4500

    Every venue has 1500 local hard cores.



    Just a theory... But that's 1500 hard cores & 1500 randoms per 2013 show, roughly
    Yes I completely understand. What I am skeptical about is this 25% number, which, with all due respect, seems to have come straight out of your ass.

    To me it seems preposterous and largely endogenous to where you are sitting. If you want to tell me that 25% of the drunk screaming college kids on the lawn at SPAC are 20+ show hardcore fans I'll tell you that you're nuts. Every local high school and college within half an hour seems to take DMB and Phish at SPAC for that weekend's party. On the other hand, sit inside and you will find more hardcores.

    But still, where do you get 25%? Also, the assumption that these 25% who are hardcores are sensitive to set lists is, in my opinion, very questionable.

    A hard core fan can mean one of two things. A) you've seen the band a lot and are picky about songs. B) Because you are nuts enough to have seen the same band 50+ times (like I have), you like them so much that you are likely not going to change your behavior all that much because Shake Me Like a Monkey gets played often and a Crazy Easy--> Get In Line encore doesn't come out every weekend.

    SPAC was show 51 for me. The set lists have sort of sucked recently. This summer I'm going to 8 shows. Not all hard cores can be expected to behave the same way, right?

    Lastly, the assumption that the full drop in attendance is due to set lists is complete bogus. There are 20 other factors that could have potentially contributed. Aging fan bases, show schedules, cost of attending shows (gas, hotel, etc...), more demanding work schedules, etc...

    What do you think?
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    Old 06-09-2014, 03:50 PM   #28
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    Re: Ants Podcast: Episode 37

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by packbg480 View Post
    Yes I completely understand. What I am skeptical about is this 25% number, which, with all due respect, seems to have come straight out of your ass.

    To me it seems preposterous and largely endogenous to where you are sitting. If you want to tell me that 25% of the drunk screaming college kids on the lawn at SPAC are 20+ show hardcore fans I'll tell you that you're nuts. Every local high school and college within half an hour seems to take DMB and Phish at SPAC for that weekend's party. On the other hand, sit inside and you will find more hardcores.

    But still, where do you get 25%? Also, the assumption that these 25% who are hardcores are sensitive to set lists is, in my opinion, very questionable.

    A hard core fan can mean one of two things. A) you've seen the band a lot and are picky about songs. B) Because you are nuts enough to have seen the same band 50+ times (like I have), you like them so much that you are likely not going to change your behavior all that much because Shake Me Like a Monkey gets played often and a Crazy Easy--> Get In Line encore doesn't come out every weekend.

    SPAC was show 51 for me. The set lists have sort of sucked recently. This summer I'm going to 8 shows. Not all hard cores can be expected to behave the same way, right?

    Lastly, the assumption that the full drop in attendance is due to set lists is complete bogus. There are 20 other factors that could have potentially contributed. Aging fan bases, show schedules, cost of attending shows (gas, hotel, etc...), more demanding work schedules, etc...

    What do you think?
    not jake,

    but I take major issue with your last paragraph. Sure, there are a variety of other factors that are all influential. HOWEVER, if the band is willing to put in some time and effort and make the concerts worth their while to the hardcore, the hardcore is still likely to attend the concerts. a jimi/Squirm>SMLAM end to spac certainly makes it easier for a guy with 2 kids in FL to say no to SPAC next year. Take out Jimi and end with Antsoween and he's probably pretty tempted to ask his parents to watch the grandkids for a weekend next May.
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    Old 06-09-2014, 04:09 PM   #29
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    Re: Ants Podcast: Episode 37

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by daveshookme View Post
    not jake,

    but I take major issue with your last paragraph. Sure, there are a variety of other factors that are all influential. HOWEVER, if the band is willing to put in some time and effort and make the concerts worth their while to the hardcore, the hardcore is still likely to attend the concerts. a jimi/Squirm>SMLAM end to spac certainly makes it easier for a guy with 2 kids in FL to say no to SPAC next year. Take out Jimi and end with Antsoween and he's probably pretty tempted to ask his parents to watch the grandkids for a weekend next May.
    I see the complete other side. If somebody from Florida is willing to spend $1,000 to fly to SPAC and have his kids taken care of for the weekend, then they are likely such big fans and so dead set on going to SPAC, that a few songs at the end of the show are unlikely to influence such a big decision in one way or another.
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    Old 06-09-2014, 04:39 PM   #30
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    Re: Ants Podcast: Episode 37

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by packbg480 View Post
    ...
    I'm actually currently studying economics and applied math (and hoping to receive my PhD down the road)..
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by packbg480 View Post
    Yes I completely understand. What I am skeptical about is this 25% number, which, with all due respect, seems to have come straight out of your ass.

    To me it seems preposterous and largely endogenous to where you are sitting. If you want to tell me that 25% of the drunk screaming college kids on the lawn at SPAC are 20+ show hardcore fans I'll tell you that you're nuts. Every local high school and college within half an hour seems to take DMB and Phish at SPAC for that weekend's party. On the other hand, sit inside and you will find more hardcores.

    But still, where do you get 25%? Also, the assumption that these 25% who are hardcores are sensitive to set lists is, in my opinion, very questionable.

    A hard core fan can mean one of two things. A) you've seen the band a lot and are picky about songs. B) Because you are nuts enough to have seen the same band 50+ times (like I have), you like them so much that you are likely not going to change your behavior all that much because Shake Me Like a Monkey gets played often and a Crazy Easy--> Get In Line encore doesn't come out every weekend.

    SPAC was show 51 for me. The set lists have sort of sucked recently. This summer I'm going to 8 shows. Not all hard cores can be expected to behave the same way, right?

    Lastly, the assumption that the full drop in attendance is due to set lists is complete bogus. There are 20 other factors that could have potentially contributed. Aging fan bases, show schedules, cost of attending shows (gas, hotel, etc...), more demanding work schedules, etc...

    What do you think?

    fancy college words


    It's a theory. I thought they still teach theory in college. They did back in the stone age when I matriculated


    2012 is when fans became vocal about redundancy and BWGK songs
    http://www.antsmarching.org/tour/Son...php?tourid=116

    Seven 23/43
    Shake Me Like A Monkey 22/43
    You And Me 20/43
    Why I Am 16/43
    Funny The Way It Is 16/43
    Spaceman 14/43
    Time Bomb 11/43
    Squirm 10/43
    Lying In The Hands Of God 5/43
    Alligator Pie 3/43


    key: song - number of plays in 2012 Summer number of 2012 summer shows



    there is a correlation between BWGK plays in 2012 and a dropoff in 2013, according to vocal feedback on this site.



    it's not the only reason (as I've explained in detail), but it's a factor. And a theory.
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