Quote:
Originally Posted by cazzie34
Shotty talked about Obama and not hitting 3% growth. Here's a good article on why trump probably won't hit 3% either. Short version, it's hard if your population isn't growing fast (like it was in the 80s) and you don't have a huge influx of immigrants and live in an advanced society.
http://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2017...ics-stagnation
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It's also hard to grow with sequestration, prolonged tax cuts, and lowest levels of non-discretionary spending in 15 years. Obama inherited the worst economy any POTUS had been handed since FDR, and he righted the ship without relying on the war machine to boost growth.
GDP is equal to Consumer Spending + Investment +
Government Spending + Net Exports.
So when the bold is drastically reduced through spending cuts via sequestration, and revenues are continually too low due to unfunded tax cuts that you can't end because it would kill recovery, you simply aren't going to have large growth (plus the plethora of other economic headwinds from Europe, the burden from the aging of baby boomers, etc).
And because Trump is advocating such large cuts (not necessarily in this first budget, but suggesting it down the road) that don't seem to be targeted at boosting middle class spending - plus his talk on trade likely to hurt NX - his only path for growth is to have a huge influx in Investment; likely as a result of large corporate handouts. And that isn't sustainable.