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Originally Posted by water_into_wine
Gotcha. Thanks for the info Seems like you're really positive on it whereas in the past you seemed to imply that the companies weren't adding enough specs to satisfy what software companies can do nowadays.
Is there a big reason for why the development cycle has been so long? Consistent sales or something? To me, from a complete consumer standpoint, I'd just guess the reason might be that there isn't a huge clamor to get something better and honestly it hasn't felt like 8 years. I remember seeing pictures of what the current devices could do back then and just think "Oh my god. Must have". Maybe once that starts happening I'll start feeling like I need something more again even though current devices still blow me away (I'm looking at you Skyrim and all the Halo 4 videos out there).
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Well, I think it's worthwhile to point out the obvious: 2007-now has really limited the people who are looking to/even can drop a few hundred dollars at the drop of a hat on a new console. So part of it is basic economics: less major purchases have opened up the avenues for micro purchases. That's why mobile and social games have dominated for the past few years: people would rather sink a hundred dollars in micro transactions over the course of a year, than they would spend $60 for a new game on one day.
And that mobile and social development has bled over into revenue streams for the consoles, lessening their desire to update. It's the reason Microsoft looks like they're going to release two SKUs: they'll almost certainly make more money on the Apple TV competitor one, compared to the true next-gen one. XBox Live has proven to be insanely profitable, with the subscription revenue playing a big part, but also everything else you can do with a console without ever buying a disc. I've mentioned it in this thread earlier, but you'll undoubtedly see Microsoft and Sony full embrace 'freemium' games going forward. XBL has their first ever right now, in the not-so-great Happy Wars. But on the next-gen, I'm guessing they're going to support freemium games right along side major titles, because there's so much money to be made.
So, having said all of that, a new console really gives them a clean slate. They hypothetically could support more freemium games now, but a new system really drives home everything.
As far as feeling better about specs, yeah. You can backread this thread, and the rumors have gone from slight upgrades to the ones we have now. And, I can't stress this enough: the specs we have right now, they might change slightly, but we're about four weeks away from them being locked in. These consoles are coming out next fall, and they have to be ready to be in production this coming spring/summer. To do that, they have to be able to have everything ready to be produced this winter, in terms of verifying the chips can roll out on time, something I mentioned Microsoft was having problems with. But yeah, one of the first things I mentioned in this thread was how certain studios, like Epic and Crytek, were pressuring the console makers into having more power. Honestly, one of the first rumours for the PS4 was a quad-core CPU, a fairly middling CPU, and 2GB RAM. And now it looks like it might have a fantastic APU setup with at least 8GB, possibly 16GB.
Super long-winded post will end with your last point there: the general rule is that end-products are the results of the development that happened 2 or 3 years before hand. Because once you start working with assets, you more or less time-lock yourself in. So yeah, Halo 4 looks fantastic, Crysis 3 looks fantastic, but they're games that were made in 2010. The problem is, we can empirically say that they are getting as much out of the system as possible. They fill the discs they ship on, and they max out CPU usage. The problem with that, is that we know that the first two years on a new console are also going to be 2 or 3 years in the past, with the caveat that they had to be developed originally on older tech. Which might sound weird, because why would you start developing a game before you knew what you were dealing with? It's because developers notoriously save new IPs for new console generations. So this is a long-winded way of saying: the more a console generation goes on, the farther we are from that true next leap. Remember when everyone freaked out over how awesome
Watch Dogs looked at E3? That's an IP that will ship on the new consoles, and will have a ported version on the 360 and PS3. Companies want to set up their tentpoles early in console generations, so the farther we go without a new console, the more watered down the market gets. Assassin's Creed is a series that some people are getting sick of,
and it didn't appear until the 360's third holiday season.
So it's very likely that the first year or two of the new consoles won't be blow-your-mind quality, because it's replacing a console that's still in a good place. But a new console release only accelerates new ideas and new IPs, which is only a good thing.
EDIT: Holy fuck, it didn't feel like I typed that much.